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Predictions › United States › New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC
MLSSat 17 Oct, 19:30 United States time

New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC prediction

Gillette Stadium

New England RevolutionHome
1.93 : 1.31
expected goals
Chicago Fire FCAway
51%New England
23%Draw
26%Chicago
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
-437

Quick answer

Our prediction for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC is New England Revolution to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -437.

Prediction
New England Revolution to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
New England Revolution 1.9, Chicago Fire FC 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at -437
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price -4372 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

New England Revolution to win and Over 2.5
35% chanceFair price +1851 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives New England Revolution 51%, the draw 23% and Chicago Fire FC 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    New England Revolution took 9 points from their last 5 games and Chicago Fire FC took 7 from 5. New England Revolution come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    New England Revolution won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Chicago Fire FC won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    New England Revolution score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Chicago Fire FC score 2.0 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of New England Revolution games and 16 of Chicago Fire FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, New England Revolution won 1 and Chicago Fire FC won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Chicago Fire FC 1, New England Revolution 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • New Englandrecent form+1%
  • Chicagorecent form-1%
  • Chicagorest between games-5%
New England form L W W W LChicago form D W L L DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC: New England Revolution are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New England Revolution host Chicago Fire FC in the MLS on Sat 17 Oct, 19:30 at Gillette Stadium. Our prediction for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC is New England Revolution to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -437.

New England Revolution form

New England Revolution have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Chicago Fire FC form

Chicago Fire FC have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. New England Revolution won 1, Chicago Fire FC won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Chicago Fire FC 1, New England Revolution 2.

Our call

We expect New England Revolution to score about 1.9 goals and Chicago Fire FC about 1.3. That points to New England Revolution to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -437. Our bold bet is New England Revolution to win and Over 2.5 at +185.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

New EnglandChicago
Games played2020
Wins109
Draws45
Losses66
Goals scored3140
Goals conceded2634
Scored per game1.62.0
Conceded per game1.31.7
Home record5W 2D 2L5W 1D 3L
Away record5W 2D 4L4W 4D 3L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored65%80%
Over 2.5 goals70%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%-525
Over 2.5 goals63%-169
Over 3.5 goals41%+146
Both teams to score63%-171
New England Revolution or Draw74%-292
Chicago Fire FC or Draw49%+104
New England Revolution to win and Over 2.537%+171
Chicago Fire FC to win and Over 2.518%+468
New England Revolution clean sheet27%+272
Chicago Fire FC clean sheet15%+586

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%
2-19.5%
2-07.3%
1-06.9%
1-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC?

Our prediction for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC is New England Revolution to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -437.

What is the score prediction for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect New England Revolution to score 1.9 goals and Chicago Fire FC 1.3.

Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of New England Revolution last 20 games and 16 of Chicago Fire FC last 20.

How are New England Revolution playing?

New England Revolution have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Chicago Fire FC playing?

Chicago Fire FC have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, D, newest first.

What happened when New England Revolution and Chicago Fire FC last met?

It ended Chicago Fire FC 1, New England Revolution 2. In the last 2 meetings New England Revolution won 1 and Chicago Fire FC won 0.

What is the best bet for New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire FC?

Over 1.5 goals at -437, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in New England against Chicago. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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