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Predictions › United States › New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks
NBAWed 14 Oct, 20:00 United States time

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks prediction

American Airlines Center

New Orleans PelicansAway
118.8 : 120.9
projected points
Dallas MavericksHome
46%Pelicans
54%Mavericks
Eagle safe pickPelicans +10.5
-308

Quick answer

Our prediction for New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks is Dallas Mavericks to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project New Orleans Pelicans 118.8 and Dallas Mavericks 120.9. Our best bet is Pelicans +10.5 at -308.

Prediction
Dallas Mavericks to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
New Orleans Pelicans 119, Dallas Mavericks 121
Projected total
239.6 points
Best bet
Pelicans +10.5 at -308

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Pelicans +10.5
75% chanceFair price -3082 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Pelicans to win
40% chanceFair price +1471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Dallas Mavericks 54% and New Orleans Pelicans 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Dallas Mavericks won 2 of their last 5 and New Orleans Pelicans won 1 of their last 5. Dallas Mavericks come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Dallas Mavericks won 2 of their last 8 games at home. New Orleans Pelicans won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Dallas Mavericks score 116.0 points a game and let in 125.9. New Orleans Pelicans score 116.9 and let in 119.0. Their recent games average 241.9 and 235.9 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Dallas Mavericks won 1 and New Orleans Pelicans won 3. The last one ended New Orleans Pelicans 129, Dallas Mavericks 111.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Pelicans +10.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Mavericksrest between games-3%
  • Pelicansrest between games-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks: Dallas Mavericks shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Dallas Mavericks host New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA on Wed 14 Oct, 20:00 at American Airlines Center. Our prediction for New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks is Dallas Mavericks to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project New Orleans Pelicans 118.8 and Dallas Mavericks 120.9. Our best bet is Pelicans +10.5 at -308.

Dallas Mavericks form

Dallas Mavericks have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 2320 points scored and 2518 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

New Orleans Pelicans form

New Orleans Pelicans have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 2338 points scored and 2380 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 10 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Dallas Mavericks won 1, New Orleans Pelicans won 3. Last time out it finished New Orleans Pelicans 129, Dallas Mavericks 111.

Our call

We expect New Orleans Pelicans to score about 118.8 points and Dallas Mavericks about 120.9. That points to Dallas Mavericks to win. Our safest bet is Pelicans +10.5 at -308. Our bold bet is Pelicans to win at +147.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MavericksPelicans
Games played2020
Wins57
Losses1513
Points scored23202338
Points conceded25182380
Scored per game116.0116.9
Conceded per game125.9119.0
Home record2W 6L6W 3L
Away record3W 9L1W 10L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Mavericks spreadCoversFair
Mavericks -8.530%+229
Mavericks -5.539%+155
Mavericks -2.549%+105
Mavericks +0.558%-139
Mavericks +3.567%-206
Total pointsOverUnder
233.563%37%
236.557%43%
239.550%50%
242.544%56%
245.537%63%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Mavericks +3.5 wins if Mavericks win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Dallas Mavericks Center Dereck Lively II Out for Start of Training Camp

Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II is not cleared for training camp as he continues to recover from right foot surgery.

24 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks?

Our prediction for New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks is Dallas Mavericks to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project New Orleans Pelicans 118.8 and Dallas Mavericks 120.9. Our best bet is Pelicans +10.5 at -308.

What is the projected score for New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks?

We project New Orleans Pelicans 118.8 and Dallas Mavericks 120.9, about 239.6 points in total.

How are Dallas Mavericks playing?

Dallas Mavericks have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 2320 points scored and 2518 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are New Orleans Pelicans playing?

New Orleans Pelicans have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 2338 points scored and 2380 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 10 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans last met?

It ended New Orleans Pelicans 129, Dallas Mavericks 111. In the last 4 meetings Dallas Mavericks won 1 and New Orleans Pelicans won 3.

What is the best bet for New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks?

Pelicans +10.5 at -308, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mavericks against Pelicans. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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