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Predictions › United States › New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat
NBAThu 8 Oct, 19:30 United States time

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat prediction

Kaseya Center

New Orleans PelicansAway
117.6 : 126.3
projected points
Miami HeatHome
24%Pelicans
76%Heat
Eagle safe pickHeat to win
-315

Quick answer

Our prediction for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat is Miami Heat to win, with a 76% chance. We project New Orleans Pelicans 117.6 and Miami Heat 126.3. Our best bet is Heat to win at -315.

Prediction
Miami Heat to win
Chance
76%
Projected score
New Orleans Pelicans 118, Miami Heat 126
Projected total
243.9 points
Best bet
Heat to win at -315

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Heat to win
76% chanceFair price -3152 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Miami Heat 76% and New Orleans Pelicans 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Miami Heat won 2 of their last 5 and New Orleans Pelicans won 1 of their last 5. Miami Heat come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Miami Heat won 6 of their last 10 games at home. New Orleans Pelicans won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Miami Heat score 123.8 points a game and let in 125.2. New Orleans Pelicans score 116.9 and let in 119.0. Their recent games average 249.0 and 235.9 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Miami Heat won 2 and New Orleans Pelicans won 0. The last one ended New Orleans Pelicans 111, Miami Heat 123.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Heat to win has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heatrest between games-3%
  • Pelicansrest between games-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat: Miami Heat are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Miami Heat host New Orleans Pelicans in the NBA on Thu 8 Oct, 19:30 at Kaseya Center. Our prediction for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat is Miami Heat to win, with a 76% chance. We project New Orleans Pelicans 117.6 and Miami Heat 126.3. Our best bet is Heat to win at -315.

Miami Heat form

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2477 points scored and 2503 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

New Orleans Pelicans form

New Orleans Pelicans have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 2338 points scored and 2380 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 10 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Miami Heat won 2, New Orleans Pelicans won 0. Last time out it finished New Orleans Pelicans 111, Miami Heat 123.

Our call

We expect New Orleans Pelicans to score about 117.6 points and Miami Heat about 126.3. That points to Miami Heat to win. Our safest bet is Heat to win at -315.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HeatPelicans
Games played2020
Wins97
Losses1113
Points scored24772338
Points conceded25032380
Scored per game123.8116.9
Conceded per game125.2119.0
Home record6W 4L6W 3L
Away record3W 7L1W 10L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Heat spreadCoversFair
Heat -14.532%+211
Heat -11.541%+143
Heat -8.551%-103
Heat -5.560%-151
Heat -2.569%-223
Total pointsOverUnder
237.564%36%
240.558%42%
243.551%49%
246.544%56%
249.538%62%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Heat +3.5 wins if Heat win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat?

Our prediction for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat is Miami Heat to win, with a 76% chance. We project New Orleans Pelicans 117.6 and Miami Heat 126.3. Our best bet is Heat to win at -315.

What is the projected score for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat?

We project New Orleans Pelicans 117.6 and Miami Heat 126.3, about 243.9 points in total.

How are Miami Heat playing?

Miami Heat have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 2477 points scored and 2503 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are New Orleans Pelicans playing?

New Orleans Pelicans have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 2338 points scored and 2380 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 10 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Miami Heat and New Orleans Pelicans last met?

It ended New Orleans Pelicans 111, Miami Heat 123. In the last 2 meetings Miami Heat won 2 and New Orleans Pelicans won 0.

What is the best bet for New Orleans Pelicans vs Miami Heat?

Heat to win at -315, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Heat against Pelicans. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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