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Predictions › United States › New York City FC vs LAFC
MLSSat 17 Oct, 19:30 United States time

New York City FC vs LAFC prediction

Citi Field

New York City FCHome
1.30 : 1.42
expected goals
LAFCAway
34%NYCFC
27%Draw
39%LAFC
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
-312

Quick answer

Our prediction for New York City FC vs LAFC is LAFC to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -312.

Prediction
LAFC to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
New York City FC 1.3, LAFC 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at -312
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price -3122 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price +6771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives New York City FC 34%, the draw 27% and LAFC 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    New York City FC took 5 points from their last 5 games and LAFC took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    New York City FC won 2 of their last 10 games at home. LAFC won 1 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    New York City FC score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. LAFC score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of New York City FC games and 12 of LAFC games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • NYCFCrecent form-1%
  • LAFCrecent form-1%
NYCFC form D L W L DLAFC form L D L W DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New York City FC vs LAFC: LAFC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New York City FC host LAFC in the MLS on Sat 17 Oct, 19:30 at Citi Field. Our prediction for New York City FC vs LAFC is LAFC to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -312.

New York City FC form

New York City FC have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, D, newest first.

LAFC form

LAFC have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 6 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect New York City FC to score about 1.3 goals and LAFC about 1.4. That points to LAFC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -312. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at +677.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NYCFCLAFC
Games played2020
Wins56
Draws76
Losses88
Goals scored2728
Goals conceded2729
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record2W 3D 5L5W 1D 2L
Away record3W 4D 3L1W 5D 6L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%-322
Over 2.5 goals51%-105
Over 3.5 goals29%+243
Both teams to score56%-127
New York City FC or Draw61%-155
LAFC or Draw66%-197
New York City FC to win and Over 2.520%+391
LAFC to win and Over 2.524%+317
New York City FC clean sheet24%+315
LAFC clean sheet27%+268

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%
1-28.6%
0-18.6%
2-17.9%
1-07.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win New York City FC vs LAFC?

Our prediction for New York City FC vs LAFC is LAFC to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -312.

What is the score prediction for New York City FC vs LAFC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect New York City FC to score 1.3 goals and LAFC 1.4.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs LAFC?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of New York City FC last 20 games and 11 of LAFC last 20.

How are New York City FC playing?

New York City FC have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, D, newest first.

How are LAFC playing?

LAFC have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 6 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for New York City FC vs LAFC?

Over 1.5 goals at -312, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in NYCFC against LAFC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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