Quick answer
Our prediction for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs is New York Islanders to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Islanders 3.2 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2. Our best bet is Islanders +1.5 at -265.
- Prediction
- New York Islanders to win
- Chance
- 52%
- Projected score
- New York Islanders 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
- Projected total
- 6.4 goals
- Best bet
- Islanders +1.5 at -265
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
Islanders +1.5
74% chancePrice -265+2.5% value1 unit
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives Toronto Maple Leafs 48% and New York Islanders 52%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Toronto Maple Leafs the favourite at -115, so take care with this one.
- 2
Recent formToronto Maple Leafs won 2 of their last 5 and New York Islanders won 1 of their last 5. Toronto Maple Leafs come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayToronto Maple Leafs won 2 of their last 8 games at home. New York Islanders won 2 of their last 7 on the road.
- 4
ScoringToronto Maple Leafs score 2.9 goals a game and let in 3.9. New York Islanders score 2.3 and let in 3.4. Their recent games average 6.8 and 5.7 goals in total, and the market line is 6.5.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 3 meetings, Toronto Maple Leafs won 0 and New York Islanders won 3. The last one ended New York Islanders 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3.
- 6
The safest betIslanders +1.5 has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.- Islandersrest between games-5%
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewNew York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs: New York Islanders shade it
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
Toronto Maple Leafs host New York Islanders in the NHL on Wed 30 Sept, 19:30 at Scotiabank Arena. Our prediction for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs is New York Islanders to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Islanders 3.2 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2. Our best bet is Islanders +1.5 at -265.
Toronto Maple Leafs form
Toronto Maple Leafs have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.
New York Islanders form
New York Islanders have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 67 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 5 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 3 times in our records. Toronto Maple Leafs won 0, New York Islanders won 3. Last time out it finished New York Islanders 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3.
Our call
We expect New York Islanders to score about 3.2 goals and Toronto Maple Leafs about 3.2. That points to New York Islanders to win. Our safest bet is Islanders +1.5 at -265.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 20 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against Draft Kings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Spread and total at every line
Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Maple Leafs +3.5 wins if Maple Leafs win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.
Questions people ask
Who will win New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
Our prediction for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs is New York Islanders to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Islanders 3.2 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2. Our best bet is Islanders +1.5 at -265.
What is the projected score for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
We project New York Islanders 3.2 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2, about 6.4 goals in total.
How are Toronto Maple Leafs playing?
Toronto Maple Leafs have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.
How are New York Islanders playing?
New York Islanders have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 46 goals scored and 67 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 5 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.
What happened when Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders last met?
It ended New York Islanders 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3. In the last 3 meetings Toronto Maple Leafs won 0 and New York Islanders won 3.
What is the best bet for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs?
Islanders +1.5 at -265, with a 74% chance. That price pays about 2.5% more than our fair price.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Maple Leafs against Islanders. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
- 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
- Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
- No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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