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Predictions › United States › New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs
NHLSat 17 Oct, 19:00 United States time

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction

Scotiabank Arena

New York IslandersAway
3.0 : 3.0
projected goals
Toronto Maple LeafsHome
54%Islanders
46%Maple Leafs
Eagle safe pickUnder 8 goals
-442

Quick answer

Our prediction for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs is New York Islanders to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Islanders 3.0 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.0. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -442.

Prediction
New York Islanders to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
New York Islanders 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Projected total
6.0 goals
Best bet
Under 8 goals at -442

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 8 goals
82% chanceFair price -4422 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Toronto Maple Leafs 46% and New York Islanders 54%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Toronto Maple Leafs won 3 of their last 5 and New York Islanders won 1 of their last 5. Toronto Maple Leafs come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Toronto Maple Leafs won 4 of their last 10 games at home. New York Islanders won 1 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Toronto Maple Leafs score 3.0 goals a game and let in 3.8. New York Islanders score 2.4 and let in 3.4. Their recent games average 6.8 and 5.8 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Toronto Maple Leafs won 1 and New York Islanders won 3. The last one ended Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Islanders 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 8 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Maple Leafsrest between games-5%
  • Islandersrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs: New York Islanders shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toronto Maple Leafs host New York Islanders in the NHL on Sat 17 Oct, 19:00 at Scotiabank Arena. Our prediction for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs is New York Islanders to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Islanders 3.0 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.0. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -442.

Toronto Maple Leafs form

Toronto Maple Leafs have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 59 goals scored and 76 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

New York Islanders form

New York Islanders have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 68 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 6 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Toronto Maple Leafs won 1, New York Islanders won 3. Last time out it finished Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Islanders 1.

Our call

We expect New York Islanders to score about 3.0 goals and Toronto Maple Leafs about 3.0. That points to New York Islanders to win. Our safest bet is Under 8 goals at -442.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Maple LeafsIslanders
Games played2020
Wins76
Losses1314
Goals scored5947
Goals conceded7668
Scored per game3.02.4
Conceded per game3.83.4
Home record4W 6L5W 8L
Away record3W 7L1W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Maple Leafs spreadCoversFair
Maple Leafs -0.541%+142
Maple Leafs +0.558%-137
Maple Leafs +1.573%-271
Total goalsOverUnder
5.559%41%
6.542%58%
7.526%74%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Maple Leafs +3.5 wins if Maple Leafs win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

New York Islanders Add Defenseman Logan Stanley On One Year Deal

The New York Islanders have signed defenseman Logan Stanley to a one year contract just days before their season opener against Toronto.

27 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Our prediction for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs is New York Islanders to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project New York Islanders 3.0 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.0. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -442.

What is the projected score for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

We project New York Islanders 3.0 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.0, about 6.0 goals in total.

How are Toronto Maple Leafs playing?

Toronto Maple Leafs have 7 wins and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 59 goals scored and 76 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

How are New York Islanders playing?

New York Islanders have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 47 goals scored and 68 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 6 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders last met?

It ended Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Islanders 1. In the last 4 meetings Toronto Maple Leafs won 1 and New York Islanders won 3.

What is the best bet for New York Islanders vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Under 8 goals at -442, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Maple Leafs against Islanders. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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