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Predictions › Australia › Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC
A-LeagueSat 31 Oct, 04:00 Australia time

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC prediction

McDonald Jones Stadium

Newcastle JetsHome
2.06 : 1.32
expected goals
Wellington Phoenix FCAway
54%Newcastle Jets
22%Draw
24%Wellington
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC is Newcastle Jets to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Newcastle Jets to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Newcastle Jets 2.1, Wellington Phoenix FC 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Newcastle Jets to win and Over 2.5
41% chanceFair price 2.431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Newcastle Jets 54%, the draw 22% and Wellington Phoenix FC 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Newcastle Jets took 7 points from their last 5 games and Wellington Phoenix FC took 9 from 5. Wellington Phoenix FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Newcastle Jets won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Wellington Phoenix FC won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Newcastle Jets score 2.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Wellington Phoenix FC score 1.4 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Newcastle Jets games and 14 of Wellington Phoenix FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Newcastle Jets won 2 and Wellington Phoenix FC won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Newcastle Jets 4, Wellington Phoenix FC 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Newcastle Jetsrecent form-4%
Newcastle Jets form D L L L DWellington form D L W L WHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC: Newcastle Jets are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Newcastle Jets host Wellington Phoenix FC in the A-League on Sat 31 Oct, 04:00 at McDonald Jones Stadium. Our prediction for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC is Newcastle Jets to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Newcastle Jets form

Newcastle Jets have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, D, newest first.

Wellington Phoenix FC form

Wellington Phoenix FC have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Newcastle Jets won 2, Wellington Phoenix FC won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Newcastle Jets 4, Wellington Phoenix FC 1.

Our call

We expect Newcastle Jets to score about 2.1 goals and Wellington Phoenix FC about 1.3. That points to Newcastle Jets to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Newcastle Jets to win and Over 2.5 at 2.43.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Newcastle JetsWellington
Games played2020
Wins118
Draws64
Losses38
Goals scored4329
Goals conceded2638
Scored per game2.11.4
Conceded per game1.31.9
Home record5W 2D 2L4W 2D 4L
Away record6W 4D 1L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored80%60%
Over 2.5 goals70%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals86%1.17
Over 2.5 goals66%1.52
Over 3.5 goals44%2.29
Both teams to score64%1.55
Newcastle Jets or Draw76%1.31
Wellington Phoenix FC or Draw46%2.17
Newcastle Jets to win and Over 2.540%2.48
Wellington Phoenix FC to win and Over 2.517%5.95
Newcastle Jets clean sheet27%3.74
Wellington Phoenix FC clean sheet13%7.84

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.8%
2-19.5%
2-07.2%
3-16.5%
1-06.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC?

Our prediction for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC is Newcastle Jets to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Newcastle Jets to score 2.1 goals and Wellington Phoenix FC 1.3.

Will both teams score in Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of Newcastle Jets last 20 games and 12 of Wellington Phoenix FC last 20.

How are Newcastle Jets playing?

Newcastle Jets have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Wellington Phoenix FC playing?

Wellington Phoenix FC have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix FC last met?

It ended Newcastle Jets 4, Wellington Phoenix FC 1. In the last 2 meetings Newcastle Jets won 2 and Wellington Phoenix FC won 0.

What is the best bet for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix FC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Newcastle Jets against Wellington. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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