EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › United Kingdom › Newcastle United vs Arsenal
Premier LeagueSat 21 Nov, 17:30 United Kingdom time

Newcastle United vs Arsenal prediction

St. James' Park

Newcastle UnitedHome
0.97 : 1.85
expected goals
ArsenalAway
19%Newcastle
24%Draw
57%Arsenal
Eagle safe pickArsenal or Draw
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Newcastle United vs Arsenal is Arsenal to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/4.

Prediction
Arsenal to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Newcastle United 1.0, Arsenal 1.9
Best bet
Arsenal or Draw at 1/4
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Arsenal or Draw
81% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Arsenal to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 9/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Newcastle United 19%, the draw 24% and Arsenal 57%. The bookmakers agree and make Arsenal the favourite at 4/7.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Newcastle United took 4 points from their last 5 games and Arsenal took 13 from 5. Arsenal come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Newcastle United won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Arsenal won 9 of their last 13 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Newcastle United score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Arsenal score 1.6 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Newcastle United games and 9 of Arsenal games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Newcastle United won 0 and Arsenal won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Arsenal 1, Newcastle United 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Arsenal or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Newcastlerecent form-3%
  • Arsenalrecent form+4%
  • Arsenalteam news-1%
Newcastle form D L L W LArsenal form W W W L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Newcastle United vs Arsenal: Arsenal are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Newcastle United host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 at St. James' Park. Our prediction for Newcastle United vs Arsenal is Arsenal to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/4.

Newcastle United form

Newcastle United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Arsenal form

Arsenal have 16 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 9 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 13. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Newcastle United won 0, Arsenal won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Arsenal 1, Newcastle United 0.

Our call

We expect Newcastle United to score about 1.0 goals and Arsenal about 1.9. That points to Arsenal to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/4. Our bold bet is Arsenal to win and Over 2.5 at 9/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NewcastleArsenal
Games played2020
Wins716
Draws43
Losses91
Goals scored2733
Goals conceded3113
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.60.7
Home record4W 2D 3L7W 0D 0L
Away record3W 2D 6L9W 3D 1L
Clean sheets15%55%
Both teams scored65%40%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Newcastle United to win18%9/24/1-4.9%
A Draw23%10/33/1-4.9%
Arsenal to win52%10/114/7-18.5%
Over 2.5 goals50%Evens4/6-16.1%
Under 2.5 goals43%11/811/10-10.3%
Newcastle United +0.540%6/45/4-10.4%
Arsenal -0.553%10/111/2-19.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%2/7
Over 2.5 goals54%5/6
Over 3.5 goals31%11/5
Both teams to score53%10/11
Newcastle United or Draw43%11/8
Arsenal or Draw81%2/9
Newcastle United to win and Over 2.511%8/1
Arsenal to win and Over 2.537%7/4
Newcastle United clean sheet16%11/2
Arsenal clean sheet38%13/8

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
0-110.3%
0-210.1%
1-29.9%
0-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Martin Zubimendi Rejects Arsenal Exit Rumours Ahead of January Window

Martin Zubimendi has confirmed he wants to stay at Arsenal despite rumours linking him with a January move to Atletico Madrid.

10 hours ago
Premier League

Panel Admits Liverpool Penalty Error as Bellamy Backs Koumas

An independent panel ruled Liverpool deserved a penalty against Arsenal, while Craig Bellamy praised the progress of Lewis Koumas.

13 hours ago
Premier League

Arsenal Trio Could Head for Exit as European Clubs Target Upgrades

Arsenal could offload three players to raise transfer funds, while Orri Oskarsson draws major interest ahead of January.

10 Nov 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Our prediction for Newcastle United vs Arsenal is Arsenal to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-2. We expect Newcastle United to score 1.0 goals and Arsenal 1.9.

Will both teams score in Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Newcastle United last 20 games and 8 of Arsenal last 20.

How are Newcastle United playing?

Newcastle United have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Arsenal playing?

Arsenal have 16 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 13 conceded. Away from home they have 9 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 13. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Newcastle United and Arsenal last met?

It ended Arsenal 1, Newcastle United 0. In the last 2 meetings Newcastle United won 0 and Arsenal won 2.

What is the best bet for Newcastle United vs Arsenal?

Arsenal or Draw at 1/4, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Newcastle against Arsenal. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.