Predictions › France › Nice vs Strasbourg

Ligue 1Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 France time

Nice vs Strasbourg prediction

Allianz Riviera

NiceHome

1.49 : 1.47

expected goals

StrasbourgAway

38%Nice

26%Draw

37%Strasbourg

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Nice vs Strasbourg is Nice to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction: Nice to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Nice 1.5, Strasbourg 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price 1.292 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Strasbourg to win

35% chancePrice 2.95+2.6% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Nice 38%, the draw 26% and Strasbourg 37%. The bookmakers agree and make Nice the favourite at 2.25.
2
Recent form
Nice took 5 points from their last 5 games and Strasbourg took 7 from 5. Strasbourg come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Nice won 1 of their last 11 games at home. Strasbourg won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Nice score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.5. Strasbourg score 1.8 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Nice games and 13 of Strasbourg games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Nice won 0 and Strasbourg won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Strasbourg 3, Nice 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nicerecent form-1%

Nice form W L D L DStrasbourg form L D W W LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Nice vs Strasbourg: Nice shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Nice host Strasbourg in the Ligue 1 on Sun 11 Oct, 13:00 at Allianz Riviera. Our prediction for Nice vs Strasbourg is Nice to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Nice form

Nice have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 8 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Strasbourg form

Strasbourg have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Nice won 0, Strasbourg won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Strasbourg 3, Nice 1.

Our call

We expect Nice to score about 1.5 goals and Strasbourg about 1.5. That points to Nice to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Strasbourg to win at 2.95.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Nice	Strasbourg
Games played	20	20
Wins	2	9
Draws	10	4
Losses	8	7
Goals scored	15	35
Goals conceded	30	32
Scored per game	0.8	1.8
Conceded per game	1.5	1.6
Home record	1W 8D 2L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	1W 2D 6L	5W 1D 4L
Clean sheets	25%	10%
Both teams scored	45%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Nice to win	36%	2.81	2.25	-20.0%
A Draw	25%	3.95	3.55	-10.2%
Strasbourg to win	35%	2.88	2.95	+2.6%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.89	1.67	-12.0%
Under 2.5 goals	41%	2.42	2.10	-13.2%
Nice -0.5	39%	2.57	2.10	-18.4%
Strasbourg +0.5	55%	1.81	1.59	-12.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	80%	1.25
Over 2.5 goals	57%	1.77
Over 3.5 goals	34%	2.92
Both teams to score	60%	1.66
Nice or Draw	63%	1.58
Strasbourg or Draw	62%	1.60
Nice to win and Over 2.5	25%	4.05
Strasbourg to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.16
Nice clean sheet	23%	4.33
Strasbourg clean sheet	23%	4.42

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%

2-18.5%

1-28.3%

1-07.1%

0-17.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Nice vs Strasbourg?

Our prediction for Nice vs Strasbourg is Nice to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Nice vs Strasbourg?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Nice to score 1.5 goals and Strasbourg 1.5.

Will both teams score in Nice vs Strasbourg?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Nice last 20 games and 13 of Strasbourg last 20.

How are Nice playing?

How are Strasbourg playing?

What happened when Nice and Strasbourg last met?

It ended Strasbourg 3, Nice 1. In the last 2 meetings Nice won 0 and Strasbourg won 1.

What is the best bet for Nice vs Strasbourg?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nice against Strasbourg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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