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Predictions › Europa League › NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia
Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 16:45 UTC

NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia prediction

Stadion Z'dezele

NK CeljeHome
1.43 : 1.32
expected goals
Omonia NicosiaAway
39%NK Celje
27%Draw
34%Omonia
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia is NK Celje to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
NK Celje to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
NK Celje 1.4, Omonia Nicosia 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.811 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives NK Celje 39%, the draw 27% and Omonia Nicosia 34%. The bookmakers agree and make NK Celje the favourite at 2.40.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    NK Celje took 9 points from their last 5 games and Omonia Nicosia took 6 from 5. NK Celje come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    NK Celje won 3 of their last 5 games at home. Omonia Nicosia won 1 of their last 4 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    NK Celje score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.5. Omonia Nicosia score 0.8 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of NK Celje games and 1 of Omonia Nicosia games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • NK Celjerecent form-3%
  • Omoniarecent form+3%
NK Celje form L L D W LOmonia form W W L W DHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia: NK Celje shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

NK Celje host Omonia Nicosia in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 16:45 at Stadion Z'dezele. Our prediction for NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia is NK Celje to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

NK Celje form

NK Celje have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 11 games, with 16 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Omonia Nicosia form

Omonia Nicosia have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 9 games, with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect NK Celje to score about 1.4 goals and Omonia Nicosia about 1.3. That points to NK Celje to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.81.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 11 games in all competitions.

NK CeljeOmonia
Games played119
Wins63
Draws12
Losses44
Goals scored167
Goals conceded178
Scored per game1.50.8
Conceded per game1.50.9
Home record3W 1D 1L2W 0D 3L
Away record3W 0D 3L1W 2D 1L
Clean sheets27%33%
Both teams scored45%33%
Over 2.5 goals64%11%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
NK Celje to win37%2.722.40-11.8%
A Draw27%3.773.30-12.5%
Omonia Nicosia to win33%3.052.85-6.5%
Over 2.5 goals49%2.051.80-12.2%
Under 2.5 goals46%2.191.91-12.7%
NK Celje -0.538%2.662.25-15.5%
Omonia Nicosia +0.557%1.741.53-12.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.93
Over 3.5 goals30%3.38
Both teams to score56%1.77
NK Celje or Draw66%1.52
Omonia Nicosia or Draw61%1.64
NK Celje to win and Over 2.524%4.16
Omonia Nicosia to win and Over 2.521%4.83
NK Celje clean sheet27%3.74
Omonia Nicosia clean sheet24%4.17

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%
2-18.6%
1-08.4%
1-28.0%
0-17.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia?

Our prediction for NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia is NK Celje to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect NK Celje to score 1.4 goals and Omonia Nicosia 1.3.

Will both teams score in NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of NK Celje last 11 games and 3 of Omonia Nicosia last 9.

How are NK Celje playing?

NK Celje have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 11 games, with 16 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Omonia Nicosia playing?

Omonia Nicosia have 3 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 9 games, with 7 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 2 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for NK Celje vs Omonia Nicosia?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in NK Celje against Omonia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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