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Predictions › United States › North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos
College FootballSat 24 Oct, 22:00 United States time

North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos prediction

University Stadium (NM)

North Dakota State BisonAway
20.8 : 25.7
projected points
New Mexico LobosHome
42%N Dakota St
58%New Mexico
Eagle safe pickNew Mexico +6
-308

Quick answer

Our prediction for North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos is New Mexico Lobos to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project North Dakota State Bison 20.8 and New Mexico Lobos 25.7. Our best bet is New Mexico +6 at -308.

Prediction
New Mexico Lobos to win
Chance
58%
Projected score
North Dakota State Bison 21, New Mexico Lobos 26
Projected total
46.5 points
Best bet
New Mexico +6 at -308

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

New Mexico +6
75% chanceFair price -3082 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

N Dakota St to win
39% chancePrice +1451 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives New Mexico Lobos 58% and North Dakota State Bison 42%. The bookmakers agree and make New Mexico Lobos the favourite at -175.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    New Mexico Lobos won 4 of their last 5 and North Dakota State Bison won 4 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    New Mexico Lobos won 8 of their last 8 games at home. North Dakota State Bison won 6 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    New Mexico Lobos score 32.5 points a game and let in 17.9. North Dakota State Bison score 36.0 and let in 13.4. Their recent games average 50.4 and 49.4 points in total, and the market line is 46.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    New Mexico +6 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos: New Mexico Lobos shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

New Mexico Lobos host North Dakota State Bison in the College Football on Sat 24 Oct, 22:00 at University Stadium (NM). Our prediction for North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos is New Mexico Lobos to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project North Dakota State Bison 20.8 and New Mexico Lobos 25.7. Our best bet is New Mexico +6 at -308.

New Mexico Lobos form

New Mexico Lobos have 12 wins and 4 losses in their last 16 games, with 520 points scored and 287 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

North Dakota State Bison form

North Dakota State Bison have 15 wins and 2 losses in their last 17 games, with 612 points scored and 228 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect North Dakota State Bison to score about 20.8 points and New Mexico Lobos about 25.7. That points to New Mexico Lobos to win. Our safest bet is New Mexico +6 at -308. Our bold bet is N Dakota St to win at +145.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 17 games in all competitions.

New MexicoN Dakota St
Games played1617
Wins1215
Losses42
Points scored520612
Points conceded287228
Scored per game32.536.0
Conceded per game17.913.4
Home record8W 0L9W 1L
Away record4W 4L6W 1L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
New Mexico to win58%-138-175-8.9%
N Dakota St to win39%+159+145-5.4%
New Mexico -450%-100-110-4.5%
N Dakota St +446%+115-110-11.3%
Over 46.5 points48%+107-110-7.8%
Under 46.5 points48%+107-110-8.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

New Mexico spreadCoversFair
New Mexico -11.534%+193
New Mexico -7.544%+129
New Mexico -4.551%-105
New Mexico -1.559%-141
New Mexico +2.568%-212
Total pointsOverUnder
39.567%33%
43.557%43%
46.550%50%
49.543%57%
53.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. New Mexico +3.5 wins if New Mexico win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos?

Our prediction for North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos is New Mexico Lobos to win, with a 58% chance, but it is a close call. We project North Dakota State Bison 20.8 and New Mexico Lobos 25.7. Our best bet is New Mexico +6 at -308.

What is the projected score for North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos?

We project North Dakota State Bison 20.8 and New Mexico Lobos 25.7, about 46.5 points in total.

How are New Mexico Lobos playing?

New Mexico Lobos have 12 wins and 4 losses in their last 16 games, with 520 points scored and 287 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are North Dakota State Bison playing?

North Dakota State Bison have 15 wins and 2 losses in their last 17 games, with 612 points scored and 228 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 1 loss from 7. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for North Dakota State Bison vs New Mexico Lobos?

New Mexico +6 at -308, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in New Mexico against N Dakota St. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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