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Predictions › United Kingdom › Norwich City vs Southampton
ChampionshipWed 14 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Norwich City vs Southampton prediction

Carrow Road

Norwich CityHome
1.53 : 1.74
expected goals
SouthamptonAway
33%Norwich City
24%Draw
42%Southampton
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Norwich City vs Southampton is Southampton to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction
Southampton to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Norwich City 1.5, Southampton 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score
65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 2/92 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Southampton to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 12/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Norwich City 33%, the draw 24% and Southampton 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Norwich City took 6 points from their last 5 games and Southampton took 8 from 5. Southampton come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Norwich City won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Southampton won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Norwich City score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.8. Southampton score 2.2 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Norwich City games and 16 of Southampton games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Norwich City won 1 and Southampton won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Southampton 1, Norwich City 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Norwich Cityrecent form-1%
  • Southamptonrecent form+1%
Norwich City form L L L W WSouthampton form L W W D DHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Norwich City vs Southampton: Southampton shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Norwich City host Southampton in the Championship on Wed 14 Oct, 19:45 at Carrow Road. Our prediction for Norwich City vs Southampton is Southampton to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Norwich City form

Norwich City have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Southampton form

Southampton have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Norwich City won 1, Southampton won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Southampton 1, Norwich City 0.

Our call

We expect Norwich City to score about 1.5 goals and Southampton about 1.7. That points to Southampton to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Southampton to win and Over 2.5 at 12/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Norwich CitySouthampton
Games played2020
Wins911
Draws25
Losses94
Goals scored3444
Goals conceded3525
Scored per game1.72.2
Conceded per game1.81.3
Home record4W 2D 3L7W 2D 1L
Away record5W 0D 6L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets5%15%
Both teams scored70%85%
Over 2.5 goals70%80%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%2/11
Over 2.5 goals63%4/7
Over 3.5 goals41%7/5
Both teams to score65%8/15
Norwich City or Draw58%8/11
Southampton or Draw67%1/2
Norwich City to win and Over 2.524%10/3
Southampton to win and Over 2.531%9/4
Norwich City clean sheet18%9/2
Southampton clean sheet22%7/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.7%
1-28.8%
2-17.7%
2-26.7%
0-16.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Norwich City vs Southampton?

Our prediction for Norwich City vs Southampton is Southampton to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Norwich City vs Southampton?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Norwich City to score 1.5 goals and Southampton 1.7.

Will both teams score in Norwich City vs Southampton?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Norwich City last 20 games and 17 of Southampton last 20.

How are Norwich City playing?

Norwich City have 9 wins, 2 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Southampton playing?

Southampton have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Norwich City and Southampton last met?

It ended Southampton 1, Norwich City 0. In the last 2 meetings Norwich City won 1 and Southampton won 1.

What is the best bet for Norwich City vs Southampton?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/9, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Norwich City against Southampton. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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