Predictions › United Kingdom › Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Premier LeagueSun 18 Oct, 16:30 United Kingdom time

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction

The City Ground

Nottingham ForestHome
0.79 : 1.60
expected goals
ArsenalAway
18%Nottm Forest
26%Draw
56%Arsenal
Eagle safe pickArsenal or Draw
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal is Arsenal to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/4.

Prediction
Arsenal to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
Nottingham Forest 0.8, Arsenal 1.6
Best bet
Arsenal or Draw at 1/4
Both teams to score
44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Arsenal or Draw
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

A Draw
26% chancePrice 11/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Nottingham Forest 18%, the draw 26% and Arsenal 56%. The bookmakers agree and make Arsenal the favourite at 4/7.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Nottingham Forest took 5 points from their last 5 games and Arsenal took 12 from 5. Arsenal come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Nottingham Forest won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Arsenal won 7 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Nottingham Forest score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Arsenal score 1.4 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Nottingham Forest games and 9 of Arsenal games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Nottingham Forest won 0 and Arsenal won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Nottingham Forest 0, Arsenal 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Arsenal or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nottm Forestrecent form-1%
  • Arsenalrecent form+4%
Nottm Forest form L W D D LArsenal form L W W W WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: Arsenal are favourites

The big picture

Nottingham Forest host Arsenal in the Premier League on Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 at The City Ground. Our prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal is Arsenal to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/4.

Nottingham Forest form

Nottingham Forest have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Arsenal form

Arsenal have 13 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Nottingham Forest won 0, Arsenal won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Nottingham Forest 0, Arsenal 0.

Our call

We expect Nottingham Forest to score about 0.8 goals and Arsenal about 1.6. That points to Arsenal to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/4. Our bold bet is A Draw at 11/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Nottm ForestArsenal
Games played2020
Wins813
Draws73
Losses54
Goals scored2928
Goals conceded2115
Scored per game1.41.4
Conceded per game1.10.8
Home record3W 5D 3L6W 1D 1L
Away record5W 2D 2L7W 2D 3L
Clean sheets30%55%
Both teams scored50%40%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Nottingham Forest to win17%5/19/2-1.1%
A Draw26%11/411/4-1.8%
Arsenal to win52%10/114/7-16.9%
Over 2.5 goals44%5/45/6-17.1%
Under 2.5 goals49%21/205/6-10.3%
Nottingham Forest +0.539%8/55/4-13.0%
Arsenal -0.555%5/68/15-16.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%4/9
Over 2.5 goals43%11/8
Over 3.5 goals22%7/2
Both teams to score44%5/4
Nottingham Forest or Draw44%5/4
Arsenal or Draw82%2/9
Nottingham Forest to win and Over 2.58%11/1
Arsenal to win and Over 2.530%9/4
Nottingham Forest clean sheet20%4/1
Arsenal clean sheet45%6/5

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-114.0%
1-112.3%
0-211.8%
0-09.8%
1-29.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

Our prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal is Arsenal to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Arsenal or Draw at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-2. We expect Nottingham Forest to score 0.8 goals and Arsenal 1.6.

Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Nottingham Forest last 20 games and 8 of Arsenal last 20.

How are Nottingham Forest playing?

Nottingham Forest have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Arsenal playing?

Arsenal have 13 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Nottingham Forest and Arsenal last met?

It ended Nottingham Forest 0, Arsenal 0. In the last 2 meetings Nottingham Forest won 0 and Arsenal won 1.

What is the best bet for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

Arsenal or Draw at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nottm Forest against Arsenal. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.