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Predictions › United Kingdom › Notts County vs Oxford United
League OneSat 10 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Notts County vs Oxford United prediction

Meadow Lane

Notts CountyHome
1.25 : 1.50
expected goals
Oxford UnitedAway
31%Notts County
27%Draw
42%Oxford Utd
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Notts County vs Oxford United is Oxford United to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Oxford United to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Notts County 1.3, Oxford United 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Oxford United to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Notts County 31%, the draw 27% and Oxford United 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Notts County took 5 points from their last 5 games and Oxford United took 10 from 5. Oxford United come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Notts County won 1 of their last 3 games at home. Oxford United won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Notts County score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Oxford United score 1.5 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 of Notts County games and 10 of Oxford United games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Notts Countyrecent form-1%
  • Oxford Utdrecent form+3%
Notts County form W L L D DOxford Utd form D W W L WHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Notts County vs Oxford United: Oxford United shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Notts County host Oxford United in the League One on Sat 10 Oct, 12:30 at Meadow Lane. Our prediction for Notts County vs Oxford United is Oxford United to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Notts County form

Notts County have 1 win, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 9 games, with 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, W, newest first.

Oxford United form

Oxford United have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Notts County to score about 1.3 goals and Oxford United about 1.5. That points to Oxford United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Oxford United to win and Over 2.5 at 3/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Notts CountyOxford Utd
Games played920
Wins18
Draws65
Losses27
Goals scored1030
Goals conceded1224
Scored per game1.11.5
Conceded per game1.31.2
Home record1W 1D 1L5W 4D 1L
Away record0W 5D 1L3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets0%20%
Both teams scored78%55%
Over 2.5 goals33%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%3/10
Over 2.5 goals52%10/11
Over 3.5 goals30%12/5
Both teams to score56%4/5
Notts County or Draw58%8/11
Oxford United or Draw69%4/9
Notts County to win and Over 2.519%9/2
Oxford United to win and Over 2.526%11/4
Notts County clean sheet22%7/2
Oxford United clean sheet29%5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
1-29.0%
0-18.9%
2-17.5%
1-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Notts County vs Oxford United?

Our prediction for Notts County vs Oxford United is Oxford United to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Notts County vs Oxford United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Notts County to score 1.3 goals and Oxford United 1.5.

Will both teams score in Notts County vs Oxford United?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of Notts County last 9 games and 11 of Oxford United last 20.

How are Notts County playing?

Notts County have 1 win, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 9 games, with 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, D, W, newest first.

How are Oxford United playing?

Oxford United have 8 wins, 5 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Notts County vs Oxford United?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/3, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Notts County against Oxford Utd. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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