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Predictions › United States › Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks
NBAMon 12 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks prediction

State Farm Arena

Oklahoma City ThunderAway
117.2 : 110.6
projected points
Atlanta HawksHome
71%Thunder
29%Hawks
Eagle safe pickThunder +1.5
-310

Quick answer

Our prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 71% chance. We project Oklahoma City Thunder 117.2 and Atlanta Hawks 110.6. Our best bet is Thunder +1.5 at -310.

Prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Chance
71%
Projected score
Oklahoma City Thunder 117, Atlanta Hawks 111
Projected total
227.8 points
Best bet
Thunder +1.5 at -310

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Thunder +1.5
76% chanceFair price -3102 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Hawks to win
29% chanceFair price +2491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Atlanta Hawks 29% and Oklahoma City Thunder 71%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Atlanta Hawks won 2 of their last 5 and Oklahoma City Thunder won 2 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Atlanta Hawks won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Oklahoma City Thunder won 7 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Atlanta Hawks score 115.2 points a game and let in 114.8. Oklahoma City Thunder score 117.0 and let in 109.8. Their recent games average 230.1 and 226.8 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Atlanta Hawks won 0 and Oklahoma City Thunder won 2. The last one ended Oklahoma City Thunder 140, Atlanta Hawks 129.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Thunder +1.5 has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Hawksrest between games-3%
  • Thunderrest between games-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks: Oklahoma City Thunder are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Atlanta Hawks host Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA on Mon 12 Oct, 19:00 at State Farm Arena. Our prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 71% chance. We project Oklahoma City Thunder 117.2 and Atlanta Hawks 110.6. Our best bet is Thunder +1.5 at -310.

Atlanta Hawks form

Atlanta Hawks have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2304 points scored and 2297 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Oklahoma City Thunder form

Oklahoma City Thunder have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 2340 points scored and 2196 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Atlanta Hawks won 0, Oklahoma City Thunder won 2. Last time out it finished Oklahoma City Thunder 140, Atlanta Hawks 129.

Our call

We expect Oklahoma City Thunder to score about 117.2 points and Atlanta Hawks about 110.6. That points to Oklahoma City Thunder to win. Our safest bet is Thunder +1.5 at -310. Our bold bet is Hawks to win at +249.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HawksThunder
Games played2020
Wins1114
Losses96
Points scored23042340
Points conceded22972196
Scored per game115.2117.0
Conceded per game114.8109.8
Home record6W 3L7W 3L
Away record5W 6L7W 3L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Hawks spreadCoversFair
Hawks +0.531%+222
Hawks +3.540%+150
Hawks +6.549%+102
Hawks +9.559%-144
Hawks +12.568%-212
Total pointsOverUnder
221.564%36%
224.557%43%
227.551%49%
230.544%56%
233.538%62%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Hawks +3.5 wins if Hawks win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Hawks Trade Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard to Hornets for Dorian Finney-Smith

The Atlanta Hawks are trading Buddy Hield and Ryan Nembhard to the Charlotte Hornets to acquire veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks?

Our prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 71% chance. We project Oklahoma City Thunder 117.2 and Atlanta Hawks 110.6. Our best bet is Thunder +1.5 at -310.

What is the projected score for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks?

We project Oklahoma City Thunder 117.2 and Atlanta Hawks 110.6, about 227.8 points in total.

How are Atlanta Hawks playing?

Atlanta Hawks have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2304 points scored and 2297 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Oklahoma City Thunder playing?

Oklahoma City Thunder have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 2340 points scored and 2196 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Atlanta Hawks and Oklahoma City Thunder last met?

It ended Oklahoma City Thunder 140, Atlanta Hawks 129. In the last 2 meetings Atlanta Hawks won 0 and Oklahoma City Thunder won 2.

What is the best bet for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Atlanta Hawks?

Thunder +1.5 at -310, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Hawks against Thunder. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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