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Predictions › United States › Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks
NBAWed 28 Oct, 21:30 United States time

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks prediction

American Airlines Center

Oklahoma City ThunderAway
121.6 : 110.1
projected points
Dallas MavericksHome
83%Thunder
17%Mavericks
Eagle safe pickThunder to win
-461

Quick answer

Our prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 83% chance. We project Oklahoma City Thunder 121.6 and Dallas Mavericks 110.1. Our best bet is Thunder to win at -461.

Prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Chance
83%
Projected score
Oklahoma City Thunder 122, Dallas Mavericks 110
Projected total
231.7 points
Best bet
Thunder to win at -461

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Thunder to win
82% chanceFair price -4612 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Dallas Mavericks 17% and Oklahoma City Thunder 83%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Dallas Mavericks won 2 of their last 5 and Oklahoma City Thunder won 1 of their last 5. Dallas Mavericks come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Dallas Mavericks won 2 of their last 11 games at home. Oklahoma City Thunder won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Dallas Mavericks score 117.7 points a game and let in 126.3. Oklahoma City Thunder score 114.1 and let in 110.5. Their recent games average 243.9 and 224.7 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Dallas Mavericks won 1 and Oklahoma City Thunder won 3. The last one ended Dallas Mavericks 87, Oklahoma City Thunder 100.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Thunder to win has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Mavericksrest between games-2%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks: Oklahoma City Thunder are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Dallas Mavericks host Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA on Wed 28 Oct, 21:30 at American Airlines Center. Our prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 83% chance. We project Oklahoma City Thunder 121.6 and Dallas Mavericks 110.1. Our best bet is Thunder to win at -461.

Dallas Mavericks form

Dallas Mavericks have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 2353 points scored and 2526 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 9 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Oklahoma City Thunder form

Oklahoma City Thunder have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 2282 points scored and 2211 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Dallas Mavericks won 1, Oklahoma City Thunder won 3. Last time out it finished Dallas Mavericks 87, Oklahoma City Thunder 100.

Our call

We expect Oklahoma City Thunder to score about 121.6 points and Dallas Mavericks about 110.1. That points to Oklahoma City Thunder to win. Our safest bet is Thunder to win at -461.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MavericksThunder
Games played2020
Wins512
Losses158
Points scored23532282
Points conceded25262211
Scored per game117.7114.1
Conceded per game126.3110.5
Home record2W 9L7W 4L
Away record3W 6L5W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Mavericks spreadCoversFair
Mavericks +5.532%+216
Mavericks +8.541%+146
Mavericks +11.550%-100
Mavericks +14.560%-147
Mavericks +17.569%-218
Total pointsOverUnder
225.564%36%
228.557%43%
231.550%50%
234.544%56%
237.537%63%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Mavericks +3.5 wins if Mavericks win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Mavs and Rockets Bond and Break Rims on Preseason China Trip

The Dallas Mavericks and Houston Rockets are in Macao, China, for a preseason doubleheader, bonding off the court and meeting fans.

8 Oct 2026
NBA

Dallas Mavericks Center Dereck Lively II Out for Start of Training Camp

Dallas Mavericks center Dereck Lively II is not cleared for training camp as he continues to recover from right foot surgery.

24 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks?

Our prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 83% chance. We project Oklahoma City Thunder 121.6 and Dallas Mavericks 110.1. Our best bet is Thunder to win at -461.

What is the projected score for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks?

We project Oklahoma City Thunder 121.6 and Dallas Mavericks 110.1, about 231.7 points in total.

How are Dallas Mavericks playing?

Dallas Mavericks have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 2353 points scored and 2526 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 9 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Oklahoma City Thunder playing?

Oklahoma City Thunder have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 2282 points scored and 2211 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder last met?

It ended Dallas Mavericks 87, Oklahoma City Thunder 100. In the last 4 meetings Dallas Mavericks won 1 and Oklahoma City Thunder won 3.

What is the best bet for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks?

Thunder to win at -461, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mavericks against Thunder. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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