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Predictions › United States › Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat
NBASun 22 Nov, 18:00 United States time

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat prediction

Kaseya Center

Oklahoma City ThunderAway
120.2 : 117.9
projected points
Miami HeatHome
59%Thunder
41%Heat
Eagle safe pickHeat +10.5
-302

Quick answer

Our prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 59% chance. We project Oklahoma City Thunder 120.2 and Miami Heat 117.9. Our best bet is Heat +10.5 at -302.

Prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder to win
Chance
59%
Projected score
Oklahoma City Thunder 120, Miami Heat 118
Projected total
238.2 points
Best bet
Heat +10.5 at -302

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Heat +10.5
75% chanceFair price -3022 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Heat to win
41% chanceFair price +1451 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Miami Heat 41% and Oklahoma City Thunder 59%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Miami Heat won 3 of their last 5 and Oklahoma City Thunder won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Miami Heat won 4 of their last 8 games at home. Oklahoma City Thunder won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Miami Heat score 121.8 points a game and let in 121.0. Oklahoma City Thunder score 110.2 and let in 110.5. Their recent games average 242.8 and 220.7 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Miami Heat won 1 and Oklahoma City Thunder won 1. The last one ended Miami Heat 122, Oklahoma City Thunder 120.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Heat +10.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Heatrest between games-2%
  • Thunderrest between games-5%
  • Thunderteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat: Oklahoma City Thunder are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Miami Heat host Oklahoma City Thunder in the NBA on Sun 22 Nov, 18:00 at Kaseya Center. Our prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 59% chance. We project Oklahoma City Thunder 120.2 and Miami Heat 117.9. Our best bet is Heat +10.5 at -302.

Miami Heat form

Miami Heat have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 2436 points scored and 2421 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Oklahoma City Thunder form

Oklahoma City Thunder have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 2203 points scored and 2211 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Miami Heat won 1, Oklahoma City Thunder won 1. Last time out it finished Miami Heat 122, Oklahoma City Thunder 120.

Our call

We expect Oklahoma City Thunder to score about 120.2 points and Miami Heat about 117.9. That points to Oklahoma City Thunder to win. Our safest bet is Heat +10.5 at -302. Our bold bet is Heat to win at +145.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

HeatThunder
Games played2020
Wins1010
Losses1010
Points scored24362203
Points conceded24212211
Scored per game121.8110.2
Conceded per game121.0110.5
Home record4W 4L7W 3L
Away record6W 6L3W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Heat spreadCoversFair
Heat -3.532%+211
Heat -0.541%+143
Heat +2.551%-103
Heat +5.560%-151
Heat +8.569%-222
Total pointsOverUnder
232.562%38%
235.556%44%
238.549%51%
241.543%57%
244.536%64%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Heat +3.5 wins if Heat win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NBA

Miami Heat Search for Defensive Answers After Slow 4-6 Start

The Miami Heat are off to a 4-6 start, struggling on defense despite adding Giannis Antetokounmpo and Klay Thompson.

9 Nov 2026
NBA

Thunder Acquire Nique Clifford From Kings for Draft Picks

The Oklahoma City Thunder traded two future second round draft picks to the Sacramento Kings for second year wing Nique Clifford.

8 Nov 2026
NBA

Oklahoma City Adds Dalen Terry to Two Year Deal After Injuries

The Oklahoma City Thunder signed swingman Dalen Terry to a two year contract after several key players suffered serious injuries.

3 Nov 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat?

Our prediction for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat is Oklahoma City Thunder to win, with a 59% chance. We project Oklahoma City Thunder 120.2 and Miami Heat 117.9. Our best bet is Heat +10.5 at -302.

What is the projected score for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat?

We project Oklahoma City Thunder 120.2 and Miami Heat 117.9, about 238.2 points in total.

How are Miami Heat playing?

Miami Heat have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 2436 points scored and 2421 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Oklahoma City Thunder playing?

Oklahoma City Thunder have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 2203 points scored and 2211 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Miami Heat and Oklahoma City Thunder last met?

It ended Miami Heat 122, Oklahoma City Thunder 120. In the last 2 meetings Miami Heat won 1 and Oklahoma City Thunder won 1.

What is the best bet for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Miami Heat?

Heat +10.5 at -302, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Heat against Thunder. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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