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Predictions › Europa League › Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague
Europa LeagueThu 22 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague prediction

Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium

OlympiacosHome
1.07 : 0.96
expected goals
Sparta PragueAway
37%Olympiacos
32%Draw
31%Sparta
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague is Olympiacos to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Olympiacos to win
Chance
37%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Olympiacos 1.1, Sparta Prague 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.001 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Olympiacos 37%, the draw 32% and Sparta Prague 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Olympiacos took 10 points from their last 5 games and Sparta Prague took 9 from 5. Olympiacos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Olympiacos won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Sparta Prague won 3 of their last 5 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Olympiacos score 1.0 goals a game and let in 0.6. Sparta Prague score 1.7 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Olympiacos games and 6 of Sparta Prague games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Olympiacosrecent form+1%
  • Spartarecent form-1%
  • Olympiacosrest between games-5%
  • Spartarest between games-3%
Olympiacos form D W W L DSparta form W L W L LHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague: Olympiacos shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Olympiacos host Sparta Prague in the Europa League on Thu 22 Oct, 19:00 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium. Our prediction for Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague is Olympiacos to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Olympiacos form

Olympiacos have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Sparta Prague form

Sparta Prague have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 9 games, with 15 goals scored and 10 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Olympiacos to score about 1.1 goals and Sparta Prague about 1.0. That points to Olympiacos to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

OlympiacosSparta
Games played209
Wins105
Draws61
Losses43
Goals scored2015
Goals conceded1210
Scored per game1.01.7
Conceded per game0.61.1
Home record5W 3D 3L2W 1D 1L
Away record5W 3D 1L3W 0D 2L
Clean sheets55%33%
Both teams scored30%44%
Over 2.5 goals20%67%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals61%1.64
Over 2.5 goals33%3.01
Over 3.5 goals15%6.73
Both teams to score41%2.42
Olympiacos or Draw69%1.45
Sparta Prague or Draw63%1.59
Olympiacos to win and Over 2.516%6.19
Sparta Prague to win and Over 2.513%7.62
Olympiacos clean sheet38%2.60
Sparta Prague clean sheet34%2.93

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%
0-013.9%
1-013.3%
0-111.7%
2-07.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague?

Our prediction for Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague is Olympiacos to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Olympiacos to score 1.1 goals and Sparta Prague 1.0.

Will both teams score in Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 6 of Olympiacos last 20 games and 4 of Sparta Prague last 9.

How are Olympiacos playing?

Olympiacos have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Sparta Prague playing?

Sparta Prague have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 9 games, with 15 goals scored and 10 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Olympiacos against Sparta. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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