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Predictions › Colombia › Once Caldas vs Alianza FC
Colombian Primera AWed 28 Oct, 23:00 Colombia time

Once Caldas vs Alianza FC prediction

Palogrande

Once CaldasHome
1.61 : 1.02
expected goals
Alianza FCAway
50%Once Caldas
26%Draw
23%Alianza FC
Eagle safe pickOnce Caldas or Draw
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Once Caldas vs Alianza FC is Once Caldas to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Once Caldas or Draw at 1.30.

Prediction
Once Caldas to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Once Caldas 1.6, Alianza FC 1.0
Best bet
Once Caldas or Draw at 1.30
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Once Caldas or Draw
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Once Caldas to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Once Caldas 50%, the draw 26% and Alianza FC 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Once Caldas took 7 points from their last 5 games and Alianza FC took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Once Caldas won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Alianza FC won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Once Caldas score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. Alianza FC score 1.0 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Once Caldas games and 12 of Alianza FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Once Caldas won 0 and Alianza FC won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Alianza FC 1, Once Caldas 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Once Caldas or Draw has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Once Caldasrecent form-1%
  • Once Caldasrest between games-5%
Once Caldas form D W D L LAlianza FC form D L W L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Once Caldas vs Alianza FC: Once Caldas are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Once Caldas host Alianza FC in the Colombian Primera A on Wed 28 Oct, 23:00 at Palogrande. Our prediction for Once Caldas vs Alianza FC is Once Caldas to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Once Caldas or Draw at 1.30.

Once Caldas form

Once Caldas have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Alianza FC form

Alianza FC have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Once Caldas won 0, Alianza FC won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Alianza FC 1, Once Caldas 1.

Our call

We expect Once Caldas to score about 1.6 goals and Alianza FC about 1.0. That points to Once Caldas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Once Caldas or Draw at 1.30. Our bold bet is Once Caldas to win and Over 2.5 at 3.47.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Once CaldasAlianza FC
Games played2020
Wins74
Draws76
Losses610
Goals scored2520
Goals conceded2234
Scored per game1.31.0
Conceded per game1.11.7
Home record5W 0D 4L1W 5D 5L
Away record2W 7D 2L3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored55%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.34
Over 2.5 goals49%2.04
Over 3.5 goals27%3.68
Both teams to score52%1.92
Once Caldas or Draw77%1.31
Alianza FC or Draw50%2.01
Once Caldas to win and Over 2.530%3.32
Alianza FC to win and Over 2.513%7.70
Once Caldas clean sheet36%2.78
Alianza FC clean sheet20%5.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-010.8%
2-19.5%
2-09.3%
0-07.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Once Caldas vs Alianza FC?

Our prediction for Once Caldas vs Alianza FC is Once Caldas to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Once Caldas or Draw at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Once Caldas vs Alianza FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Once Caldas to score 1.6 goals and Alianza FC 1.0.

Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Alianza FC?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Once Caldas last 20 games and 12 of Alianza FC last 20.

How are Once Caldas playing?

Once Caldas have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Alianza FC playing?

Alianza FC have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Once Caldas and Alianza FC last met?

It ended Alianza FC 1, Once Caldas 1. In the last 1 meeting Once Caldas won 0 and Alianza FC won 0.

What is the best bet for Once Caldas vs Alianza FC?

Once Caldas or Draw at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Once Caldas against Alianza FC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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