Predictions › Colombia › Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima

Colombian Primera AWed 16 Sept, 23:15 Colombia time

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima prediction

Palogrande

Once CaldasHome

1.43 : 1.10

expected goals

Deportes TolimaAway

44%Once Caldas

28%Draw

28%Tolima

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima is Once Caldas to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Once Caldas to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Once Caldas 1.4, Deportes Tolima 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.531 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Once Caldas 44%, the draw 28% and Deportes Tolima 28%. The bookmakers agree and make Once Caldas the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Once Caldas took 5 points from their last 5 games and Deportes Tolima took 7 from 5. Deportes Tolima come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Once Caldas won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Deportes Tolima won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Once Caldas score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.2. Deportes Tolima score 1.2 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Once Caldas games and 11 of Deportes Tolima games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Once Caldas won 0 and Deportes Tolima won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportes Tolima 2, Once Caldas 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Once Caldasrecent form+1%
Tolimarest between games-5%

Once Caldas form W L W D DTolima form L W W L DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima: Once Caldas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Once Caldas host Deportes Tolima in the Colombian Primera A on Wed 16 Sept, 23:15 at Palogrande. Our prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima is Once Caldas to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Once Caldas form

Once Caldas have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Deportes Tolima form

Deportes Tolima have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Once Caldas won 0, Deportes Tolima won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportes Tolima 2, Once Caldas 1.

Our call

We expect Once Caldas to score about 1.4 goals and Deportes Tolima about 1.1. That points to Once Caldas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.53.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Once Caldas	Tolima
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	9
Draws	9	3
Losses	4	8
Goals scored	31	24
Goals conceded	24	23
Scored per game	1.6	1.2
Conceded per game	1.2	1.1
Home record	5W 1D 3L	6W 2D 3L
Away record	2W 8D 1L	3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Once Caldas to win	41%	2.42	2.15	-11.1%
A Draw	26%	3.78	2.80	-25.9%
Deportes Tolima to win	27%	3.75	3.60	-3.9%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.23	1.95	-12.3%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.90	1.74	-8.5%
Once Caldas -0.5	42%	2.41	2.05	-14.8%
Deportes Tolima +0.5	56%	1.79	1.63	-9.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.16
Over 3.5 goals	25%	4.02
Both teams to score	51%	1.94
Once Caldas or Draw	72%	1.39
Deportes Tolima or Draw	56%	1.79
Once Caldas to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.98
Deportes Tolima to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.52
Once Caldas clean sheet	33%	2.99
Deportes Tolima clean sheet	24%	4.19

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%

1-010.7%

2-19.0%

0-08.7%

2-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

Our prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima is Once Caldas to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Once Caldas to score 1.4 goals and Deportes Tolima 1.1.

Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Once Caldas last 20 games and 9 of Deportes Tolima last 20.

How are Once Caldas playing?

How are Deportes Tolima playing?

What happened when Once Caldas and Deportes Tolima last met?

It ended Deportes Tolima 2, Once Caldas 1. In the last 1 meeting Once Caldas won 0 and Deportes Tolima won 1.

What is the best bet for Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Once Caldas against Tolima. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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