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Predictions › Colombia › Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali
Colombian Primera ASun 13 Sept, 23:10 Colombia time

Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali prediction

Palogrande

Once CaldasHome
1.43 : 1.01
expected goals
Deportivo CaliAway
46%Once Caldas
28%Draw
26%Cali
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali is Once Caldas to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Once Caldas to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Once Caldas 1.4, Deportivo Cali 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Once Caldas 46%, the draw 28% and Deportivo Cali 26%. The bookmakers agree and make Once Caldas the favourite at 2.00.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Once Caldas took 5 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Cali took 6 from 5. Deportivo Cali come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Once Caldas won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Deportivo Cali won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Once Caldas score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.2. Deportivo Cali score 1.0 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Once Caldas games and 3 of Deportivo Cali games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Once Caldas won 1 and Deportivo Cali won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Deportivo Cali 0, Once Caldas 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Once Caldasrecent form+1%
  • Calirecent form-3%
  • Calirest between games-2%
Once Caldas form W L W D DCali form D L D L DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali: Once Caldas are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Once Caldas host Deportivo Cali in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 13 Sept, 23:10 at Palogrande. Our prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali is Once Caldas to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Once Caldas form

Once Caldas have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Deportivo Cali form

Deportivo Cali have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Once Caldas won 1, Deportivo Cali won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Cali 0, Once Caldas 2.

Our call

We expect Once Caldas to score about 1.4 goals and Deportivo Cali about 1.0. That points to Once Caldas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Once CaldasCali
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws98
Losses45
Goals scored3120
Goals conceded2416
Scored per game1.61.0
Conceded per game1.20.8
Home record5W 1D 3L4W 5D 1L
Away record2W 8D 1L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets20%35%
Both teams scored65%45%
Over 2.5 goals45%15%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Once Caldas to win44%2.272.00-12.0%
A Draw27%3.763.20-14.9%
Deportivo Cali to win24%4.153.55-14.4%
Over 2.5 goals40%2.482.15-13.4%
Under 2.5 goals57%1.751.61-8.1%
Once Caldas -0.545%2.251.95-13.1%
Deportivo Cali +0.553%1.891.71-9.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.41
Over 2.5 goals44%2.27
Over 3.5 goals23%4.36
Both teams to score49%2.04
Once Caldas or Draw74%1.35
Deportivo Cali or Draw54%1.86
Once Caldas to win and Over 2.525%3.93
Deportivo Cali to win and Over 2.513%7.53
Once Caldas clean sheet37%2.73
Deportivo Cali clean sheet24%4.19

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-011.7%
0-09.5%
2-19.0%
2-09.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali?

Our prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali is Once Caldas to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Once Caldas to score 1.4 goals and Deportivo Cali 1.0.

Will both teams score in Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Once Caldas last 20 games and 9 of Deportivo Cali last 20.

How are Once Caldas playing?

Once Caldas have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Deportivo Cali playing?

Deportivo Cali have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Once Caldas and Deportivo Cali last met?

It ended Deportivo Cali 0, Once Caldas 2. In the last 2 meetings Once Caldas won 1 and Deportivo Cali won 0.

What is the best bet for Once Caldas vs Deportivo Cali?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Once Caldas against Cali. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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