Predictions › United States › Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos
College FootballSat 14 Nov, 18:00 United States time

Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos prediction

Albertsons Stadium

Oregon State BeaversAway
29.0 : 33.5
projected points
Boise State BroncosHome
43%Oregon St
57%Boise St
Eagle safe pickUnder 72.5 points
-298

Quick answer

Our prediction for Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos is Boise State Broncos to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Oregon State Beavers 29.0 and Boise State Broncos 33.5. Our best bet is Under 72.5 points at -298.

Prediction
Boise State Broncos to win
Chance
57%
Projected score
Oregon State Beavers 29, Boise State Broncos 33
Projected total
62.5 points
Best bet
Under 72.5 points at -298

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 72.5 points
75% chanceFair price -2981 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Boise State Broncos 57% and Oregon State Beavers 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Boise State Broncos the favourite at -180.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Boise State Broncos won 5 of their last 5 and Oregon State Beavers won 4 of their last 5. Boise State Broncos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Boise State Broncos won 9 of their last 10 games at home. Oregon State Beavers won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Boise State Broncos score 32.4 points a game and let in 23.9. Oregon State Beavers score 27.6 and let in 26.8. Their recent games average 56.3 and 54.4 points in total, and the market line is 62.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 72.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos: Boise State Broncos shade it

The big picture

Boise State Broncos host Oregon State Beavers in the College Football on Sat 14 Nov, 18:00 at Albertsons Stadium. Our prediction for Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos is Boise State Broncos to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Oregon State Beavers 29.0 and Boise State Broncos 33.5. Our best bet is Under 72.5 points at -298.

Boise State Broncos form

Boise State Broncos have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 647 points scored and 478 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Oregon State Beavers form

Oregon State Beavers have 7 wins and 11 losses in their last 18 games, with 497 points scored and 483 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Oregon State Beavers to score about 29.0 points and Boise State Broncos about 33.5. That points to Boise State Broncos to win. Our safest bet is Under 72.5 points at -298.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Boise StOregon St
Games played2018
Wins157
Losses511
Points scored647497
Points conceded478483
Scored per game32.427.6
Conceded per game23.926.8
Home record9W 1L5W 4L
Away record6W 4L2W 7L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Boise St to win57%-132-180-11.6%
Oregon St to win38%+166+150-6.2%
Boise St -4.546%+115-115-13.1%
Oregon St +4.547%+115-105-9.2%
Over 62.5 points46%+115-110-11.4%
Under 62.5 points47%+115-110-11.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Boise St spreadCoversFair
Boise St -11.533%+203
Boise St -7.543%+135
Boise St -4.550%+100
Boise St -1.557%-135
Boise St +2.567%-202
Total pointsOverUnder
55.567%33%
59.557%43%
62.550%50%
65.542%58%
69.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Boise St +3.5 wins if Boise St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos?

Our prediction for Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos is Boise State Broncos to win, with a 57% chance, but it is a close call. We project Oregon State Beavers 29.0 and Boise State Broncos 33.5. Our best bet is Under 72.5 points at -298.

What is the projected score for Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos?

We project Oregon State Beavers 29.0 and Boise State Broncos 33.5, about 62.5 points in total.

How are Boise State Broncos playing?

Boise State Broncos have 15 wins and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 647 points scored and 478 conceded. At home they have 9 wins and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Oregon State Beavers playing?

Oregon State Beavers have 7 wins and 11 losses in their last 18 games, with 497 points scored and 483 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Oregon State Beavers vs Boise State Broncos?

Under 72.5 points at -298, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Boise St against Oregon St. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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