Predictions › Spain › Osasuna vs Athletic Club

LaLigaSat 7 Nov, 17:30 Spain time

Osasuna vs Athletic Club prediction

El Sadar

OsasunaHome

1.20 : 1.28

expected goals

Athletic ClubAway

34%Osasuna

29%Draw

38%Athletic

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Osasuna vs Athletic Club is Athletic Club to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Athletic Club to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Osasuna 1.2, Athletic Club 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Osasuna to win

33% chancePrice 3.30+7.6% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Osasuna 34%, the draw 29% and Athletic Club 38%. The bookmakers agree and make Athletic Club the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Osasuna took 4 points from their last 5 games and Athletic Club took 6 from 5. Athletic Club come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Osasuna won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Athletic Club won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Osasuna score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.8. Athletic Club score 1.3 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Osasuna games and 10 of Athletic Club games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Osasuna won 0 and Athletic Club won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Athletic Club 1, Osasuna 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Osasunarecent form-1%
Athleticrecent form-1%
Osasunarest between games-2%

Osasuna form D W L D LAthletic form D L D D DHome edge in this league 35% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Osasuna vs Athletic Club: Athletic Club shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Osasuna host Athletic Club in the LaLiga on Sat 7 Nov, 17:30 at El Sadar. Our prediction for Osasuna vs Athletic Club is Athletic Club to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Osasuna form

Osasuna have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Athletic Club form

Athletic Club have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Osasuna won 0, Athletic Club won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Athletic Club 1, Osasuna 0.

Our call

We expect Osasuna to score about 1.2 goals and Athletic Club about 1.3. That points to Athletic Club to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Osasuna to win at 3.30.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Osasuna	Athletic
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	6
Draws	4	4
Losses	11	10
Goals scored	21	25
Goals conceded	35	30
Scored per game	1.1	1.3
Conceded per game	1.8	1.5
Home record	4W 3D 4L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	1W 1D 7L	2W 1D 7L
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Both teams scored	55%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Osasuna to win	33%	3.07	3.30	+7.6%
A Draw	28%	3.62	3.30	-8.8%
Athletic Club to win	37%	2.69	2.15	-20.1%
Over 2.5 goals	44%	2.25	2.00	-11.3%
Under 2.5 goals	50%	2.01	1.74	-13.4%
Osasuna +0.5	52%	1.91	1.63	-14.8%
Athletic Club -0.5	42%	2.40	2.05	-14.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	72%	1.40
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.22
Over 3.5 goals	24%	4.20
Both teams to score	51%	1.95
Osasuna or Draw	62%	1.61
Athletic Club or Draw	66%	1.51
Osasuna to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.45
Athletic Club to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.79
Osasuna clean sheet	28%	3.61
Athletic Club clean sheet	30%	3.31

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%

0-110.0%

1-09.3%

0-09.2%

1-28.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Osasuna vs Athletic Club?

Our prediction for Osasuna vs Athletic Club is Athletic Club to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Osasuna to score 1.2 goals and Athletic Club 1.3.

Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Athletic Club?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Osasuna last 20 games and 9 of Athletic Club last 20.

How are Osasuna playing?

How are Athletic Club playing?

What happened when Osasuna and Athletic Club last met?

It ended Athletic Club 1, Osasuna 0. In the last 2 meetings Osasuna won 0 and Athletic Club won 1.

What is the best bet for Osasuna vs Athletic Club?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Osasuna against Athletic. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.