Predictions › Spain › Osasuna vs Málaga

LaLigaSun 22 Nov, 17:30 Spain time

Osasuna vs Málaga prediction

El Sadar

OsasunaHome

1.64 : 0.91

expected goals

MálagaAway

54%Osasuna

26%Draw

20%Málaga

Eagle safe pickOsasuna or Draw

1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Osasuna vs Málaga is Osasuna to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Osasuna or Draw at 1.26.

Prediction: Osasuna to win
Chance: 54%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Osasuna 1.6, Málaga 0.9
Best bet: Osasuna or Draw at 1.26
Both teams to score: 49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Osasuna or Draw

80% chanceFair price 1.262 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Osasuna to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 3.241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Osasuna 54%, the draw 26% and Málaga 20%. The bookmakers agree and make Osasuna the favourite at 1.74.
2
Recent form
Osasuna took 4 points from their last 5 games and Málaga took 2 from 5. Osasuna come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Osasuna won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Málaga won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Osasuna score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.8. Málaga score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Osasuna games and 8 of Málaga games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Osasuna or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Málagarecent form-3%

Osasuna form D L W L WMálaga form L L W D LHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Osasuna vs Málaga: Osasuna are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Osasuna host Málaga in the LaLiga on Sun 22 Nov, 17:30 at El Sadar. Our prediction for Osasuna vs Málaga is Osasuna to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Osasuna or Draw at 1.26.

Osasuna form

Osasuna have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Málaga form

Málaga have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Osasuna to score about 1.6 goals and Málaga about 0.9. That points to Osasuna to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Osasuna or Draw at 1.26. Our bold bet is Osasuna to win and Over 2.5 at 3.24.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Osasuna	Málaga
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	5
Draws	4	8
Losses	12	7
Goals scored	20	22
Goals conceded	36	28
Scored per game	1.0	1.1
Conceded per game	1.8	1.4
Home record	3W 4D 4L	1W 6D 3L
Away record	1W 0D 8L	4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets	15%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Osasuna to win	50%	2.02	1.74	-13.6%
A Draw	25%	3.93	3.70	-5.9%
Málaga to win	19%	5.19	4.50	-13.3%
Over 2.5 goals	46%	2.19	1.87	-14.7%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	2.10	1.83	-12.8%
Osasuna -0.5	50%	2.00	1.67	-16.8%
Málaga +0.5	43%	2.31	2.00	-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.96
Both teams to score	49%	2.05
Osasuna or Draw	80%	1.25
Málaga or Draw	46%	2.17
Osasuna to win and Over 2.5	31%	3.20
Málaga to win and Over 2.5	10%	9.59
Osasuna clean sheet	40%	2.48
Málaga clean sheet	19%	5.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.3%

1-012.1%

2-010.5%

2-19.6%

0-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Osasuna vs Málaga?

Our prediction for Osasuna vs Málaga is Osasuna to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Osasuna or Draw at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Osasuna vs Málaga?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Osasuna to score 1.6 goals and Málaga 0.9.

Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Málaga?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Osasuna last 20 games and 13 of Málaga last 20.

How are Osasuna playing?

How are Málaga playing?

What is the best bet for Osasuna vs Málaga?

Osasuna or Draw at 1.26, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Osasuna against Málaga. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.