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Predictions › United States › Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs
NHLWed 23 Sept, 00:00 United States time

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction

Scotiabank Arena

Ottawa SenatorsAway
3.6 : 3.2
projected goals
Toronto Maple LeafsHome
60%Senators
40%Maple Leafs
Eagle safe pickOver 5 goals
-515

Quick answer

Our prediction for Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs is Ottawa Senators to win, with a 60% chance. We project Ottawa Senators 3.6 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2. Our best bet is Over 5 goals at -515.

Prediction
Ottawa Senators to win
Chance
60%
Projected score
Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Projected total
6.9 goals
Best bet
Over 5 goals at -515

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 5 goals
84% chanceFair price -5152 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Maple Leafs to win
40% chanceFair price +1531 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Toronto Maple Leafs 40% and Ottawa Senators 60%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Toronto Maple Leafs won 0 of their last 5 and Ottawa Senators won 1 of their last 5. Ottawa Senators come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Toronto Maple Leafs won 2 of their last 8 games at home. Ottawa Senators won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Toronto Maple Leafs score 2.8 goals a game and let in 4.2. Ottawa Senators score 2.9 and let in 2.6. Their recent games average 7.0 and 5.5 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Toronto Maple Leafs won 1 and Ottawa Senators won 4. The last one ended Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Maple Leafsrest between games-3%
  • Senatorsrest between games-3%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Ottawa Senators are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toronto Maple Leafs host Ottawa Senators in the NHL on Wed 23 Sept, 00:00 at Scotiabank Arena. Our prediction for Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs is Ottawa Senators to win, with a 60% chance. We project Ottawa Senators 3.6 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2. Our best bet is Over 5 goals at -515.

Toronto Maple Leafs form

Toronto Maple Leafs have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 55 goals scored and 84 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Ottawa Senators form

Ottawa Senators have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 52 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Toronto Maple Leafs won 1, Ottawa Senators won 4. Last time out it finished Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1.

Our call

We expect Ottawa Senators to score about 3.6 goals and Toronto Maple Leafs about 3.2. That points to Ottawa Senators to win. Our safest bet is Over 5 goals at -515. Our bold bet is Maple Leafs to win at +153.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Maple LeafsSenators
Games played2020
Wins510
Losses1510
Goals scored5558
Goals conceded8452
Scored per game2.82.9
Conceded per game4.22.6
Home record2W 6L7W 4L
Away record3W 9L3W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Maple Leafs spreadCoversFair
Maple Leafs -0.535%+183
Maple Leafs +0.552%-107
Maple Leafs +1.568%-209
Total goalsOverUnder
5.572%28%
6.556%44%
7.539%61%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Maple Leafs +3.5 wins if Maple Leafs win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Our prediction for Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs is Ottawa Senators to win, with a 60% chance. We project Ottawa Senators 3.6 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2. Our best bet is Over 5 goals at -515.

What is the projected score for Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

We project Ottawa Senators 3.6 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2, about 6.9 goals in total.

How are Toronto Maple Leafs playing?

Toronto Maple Leafs have 5 wins and 15 losses in their last 20 games, with 55 goals scored and 84 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Ottawa Senators playing?

Ottawa Senators have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 52 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators last met?

It ended Ottawa Senators 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 1. In the last 5 meetings Toronto Maple Leafs won 1 and Ottawa Senators won 4.

What is the best bet for Ottawa Senators vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Over 5 goals at -515, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Maple Leafs against Senators. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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