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Predictions › United Kingdom › Oxford United vs Reading
League OneWed 4 Nov, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Oxford United vs Reading prediction

The Kassam Stadium

Oxford UnitedHome
1.29 : 1.05
expected goals
ReadingAway
41%Oxford Utd
29%Draw
29%Reading
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Oxford United vs Reading is Oxford United to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Oxford United to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Oxford United 1.3, Reading 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 6/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Oxford United 41%, the draw 29% and Reading 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Oxford United took 9 points from their last 5 games and Reading took 10 from 5. Reading come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Oxford United won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Reading won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Oxford United score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Reading score 1.6 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Oxford United games and 11 of Reading games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Oxford Utdrecent form+1%
  • Oxford Utdrest between games-5%
  • Readingrest between games-5%
Oxford Utd form D W D W LReading form D W L L WHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Oxford United vs Reading: Oxford United shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Oxford United host Reading in the League One on Wed 4 Nov, 19:45 at The Kassam Stadium. Our prediction for Oxford United vs Reading is Oxford United to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

Oxford United form

Oxford United have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Reading form

Reading have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Oxford United to score about 1.3 goals and Reading about 1.1. That points to Oxford United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 6/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Oxford UtdReading
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws75
Losses68
Goals scored2833
Goals conceded2324
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.11.2
Home record4W 5D 1L5W 1D 5L
Away record3W 2D 5L2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored55%60%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%4/9
Over 2.5 goals41%7/5
Over 3.5 goals21%4/1
Both teams to score48%11/10
Oxford United or Draw71%2/5
Reading or Draw59%8/11
Oxford United to win and Over 2.521%7/2
Reading to win and Over 2.515%6/1
Oxford United clean sheet35%15/8
Reading clean sheet28%13/5

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
1-011.7%
0-010.5%
0-19.4%
2-18.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Oxford United vs Reading?

Our prediction for Oxford United vs Reading is Oxford United to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Oxford United vs Reading?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Oxford United to score 1.3 goals and Reading 1.1.

Will both teams score in Oxford United vs Reading?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Oxford United last 20 games and 12 of Reading last 20.

How are Oxford United playing?

Oxford United have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

How are Reading playing?

Reading have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Oxford United vs Reading?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Oxford Utd against Reading. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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