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Predictions › United Kingdom › Oxford United vs Stevenage
FA CupSat 7 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Oxford United vs Stevenage prediction

The Kassam Stadium

Oxford UnitedHome
1.83 : 1.39
expected goals
StevenageAway
47%Oxford Utd
24%Draw
29%Stevenage
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for Oxford United vs Stevenage is Oxford United to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

Prediction
Oxford United to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Oxford United 1.8, Stevenage 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/5
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1/52 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Oxford United to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Oxford United 47%, the draw 24% and Stevenage 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Oxford United took 11 points from their last 5 games and Stevenage took 6 from 5. Oxford United come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Oxford United won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Stevenage won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Oxford United score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Stevenage score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Oxford United games and 9 of Stevenage games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Oxford United won 1 and Stevenage won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Stevenage 1, Oxford United 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Oxford Utdrecent form+3%
  • Stevenagerecent form+3%
  • Oxford Utdrest between games-5%
Oxford Utd form D D W D WStevenage form D W L W WHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Oxford United vs Stevenage: Oxford United are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Oxford United host Stevenage in the FA Cup on Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 at The Kassam Stadium. Our prediction for Oxford United vs Stevenage is Oxford United to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

Oxford United form

Oxford United have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

Stevenage form

Stevenage have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Oxford United won 1, Stevenage won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Stevenage 1, Oxford United 2.

Our call

We expect Oxford United to score about 1.8 goals and Stevenage about 1.4. That points to Oxford United to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5. Our bold bet is Oxford United to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Oxford UtdStevenage
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws65
Losses68
Goals scored2823
Goals conceded2226
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record5W 4D 1L5W 2D 4L
Away record3W 2D 5L2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored50%45%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1/5
Over 2.5 goals62%8/13
Over 3.5 goals40%6/4
Both teams to score64%4/7
Oxford United or Draw71%2/5
Stevenage or Draw53%10/11
Oxford United to win and Over 2.534%2/1
Stevenage to win and Over 2.520%4/1
Oxford United clean sheet25%3/1
Stevenage clean sheet16%5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.8%
2-19.3%
1-27.1%
1-06.7%
2-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Oxford United vs Stevenage?

Our prediction for Oxford United vs Stevenage is Oxford United to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

What is the score prediction for Oxford United vs Stevenage?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Oxford United to score 1.8 goals and Stevenage 1.4.

Will both teams score in Oxford United vs Stevenage?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Oxford United last 20 games and 9 of Stevenage last 20.

How are Oxford United playing?

Oxford United have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, W, newest first.

How are Stevenage playing?

Stevenage have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Oxford United and Stevenage last met?

It ended Stevenage 1, Oxford United 2. In the last 1 meeting Oxford United won 1 and Stevenage won 0.

What is the best bet for Oxford United vs Stevenage?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/5, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Oxford Utd against Stevenage. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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