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Predictions › Mexico › Pachuca vs Cruz Azul
Liga MXThu 22 Oct, 03:00 Mexico time

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul prediction

Estadio Hidalgo

PachucaHome
1.45 : 1.68
expected goals
Cruz AzulAway
33%Pachuca
25%Draw
43%Cruz Azul
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Pachuca vs Cruz Azul is Cruz Azul to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Cruz Azul to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Pachuca 1.4, Cruz Azul 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cruz Azul to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.621 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Pachuca 33%, the draw 25% and Cruz Azul 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Pachuca took 8 points from their last 5 games and Cruz Azul took 8 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Pachuca won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Cruz Azul won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Pachuca score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.2. Cruz Azul score 1.9 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Pachuca games and 13 of Cruz Azul games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Pachuca won 1 and Cruz Azul won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cruz Azul 1, Pachuca 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pachucarecent form+1%
  • Cruz Azulrecent form-1%
  • Pachucarest between games-5%
  • Cruz Azulrest between games-5%
Pachuca form D L D W WCruz Azul form D D L L WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Pachuca vs Cruz Azul: Cruz Azul shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Pachuca host Cruz Azul in the Liga MX on Thu 22 Oct, 03:00 at Estadio Hidalgo. Our prediction for Pachuca vs Cruz Azul is Cruz Azul to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Pachuca form

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Cruz Azul form

Cruz Azul have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Pachuca won 1, Cruz Azul won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cruz Azul 1, Pachuca 2.

Our call

We expect Pachuca to score about 1.4 goals and Cruz Azul about 1.7. That points to Cruz Azul to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Cruz Azul to win and Over 2.5 at 3.62.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PachucaCruz Azul
Games played2020
Wins910
Draws46
Losses74
Goals scored3238
Goals conceded2430
Scored per game1.61.9
Conceded per game1.21.5
Home record3W 3D 3L5W 4D 2L
Away record6W 1D 4L5W 2D 2L
Clean sheets30%15%
Both teams scored50%75%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.65
Over 3.5 goals38%2.62
Both teams to score63%1.59
Pachuca or Draw57%1.74
Cruz Azul or Draw67%1.48
Pachuca to win and Over 2.522%4.47
Cruz Azul to win and Over 2.530%3.37
Pachuca clean sheet19%5.37
Cruz Azul clean sheet23%4.27

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
1-28.9%
2-17.7%
0-16.7%
2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

Our prediction for Pachuca vs Cruz Azul is Cruz Azul to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Pachuca to score 1.4 goals and Cruz Azul 1.7.

Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Pachuca last 20 games and 15 of Cruz Azul last 20.

How are Pachuca playing?

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Cruz Azul playing?

Cruz Azul have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Pachuca and Cruz Azul last met?

It ended Cruz Azul 1, Pachuca 2. In the last 2 meetings Pachuca won 1 and Cruz Azul won 1.

What is the best bet for Pachuca vs Cruz Azul?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pachuca against Cruz Azul. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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