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Predictions › Mexico › Pachuca vs Necaxa
Liga MXSun 11 Oct, 23:15 Mexico time

Pachuca vs Necaxa prediction

Estadio Hidalgo

PachucaHome
2.01 : 1.18
expected goals
NecaxaAway
56%Pachuca
23%Draw
21%Necaxa
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Pachuca vs Necaxa is Pachuca to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Pachuca to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Pachuca 2.0, Necaxa 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Pachuca to win and Over 2.5
38% chanceFair price 2.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Pachuca 56%, the draw 23% and Necaxa 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Pachuca took 8 points from their last 5 games and Necaxa took 1 from 5. Pachuca come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Pachuca won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Necaxa won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Pachuca score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Necaxa score 1.1 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Pachuca games and 13 of Necaxa games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Pachuca won 2 and Necaxa won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Pachuca 2, Necaxa 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pachucarecent form+1%
  • Necaxarecent form-6%
Pachuca form L D W W DNecaxa form L L L D LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Pachuca vs Necaxa: Pachuca are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Pachuca host Necaxa in the Liga MX on Sun 11 Oct, 23:15 at Estadio Hidalgo. Our prediction for Pachuca vs Necaxa is Pachuca to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

Pachuca form

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Necaxa form

Necaxa have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Pachuca won 2, Necaxa won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Pachuca 2, Necaxa 1.

Our call

We expect Pachuca to score about 2.0 goals and Necaxa about 1.2. That points to Pachuca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Pachuca to win and Over 2.5 at 2.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PachucaNecaxa
Games played2020
Wins94
Draws45
Losses711
Goals scored3022
Goals conceded2234
Scored per game1.51.1
Conceded per game1.11.7
Home record3W 3D 3L4W 2D 5L
Away record6W 1D 4L0W 3D 6L
Clean sheets30%15%
Both teams scored50%75%
Over 2.5 goals45%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.62
Over 3.5 goals40%2.53
Both teams to score61%1.65
Pachuca or Draw79%1.27
Necaxa or Draw44%2.27
Pachuca to win and Over 2.540%2.50
Necaxa to win and Over 2.514%7.00
Pachuca clean sheet31%3.26
Necaxa clean sheet13%7.46

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.4%
2-19.8%
2-08.3%
1-07.7%
3-16.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Pachuca vs Necaxa?

Our prediction for Pachuca vs Necaxa is Pachuca to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Pachuca vs Necaxa?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Pachuca to score 2.0 goals and Necaxa 1.2.

Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Necaxa?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Pachuca last 20 games and 15 of Necaxa last 20.

How are Pachuca playing?

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Necaxa playing?

Necaxa have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Pachuca and Necaxa last met?

It ended Pachuca 2, Necaxa 1. In the last 2 meetings Pachuca won 2 and Necaxa won 0.

What is the best bet for Pachuca vs Necaxa?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pachuca against Necaxa. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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