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Predictions › Mexico › Pachuca vs Toluca
Liga MXSat 21 Nov, 22:50 Mexico time

Pachuca vs Toluca prediction

Estadio Hidalgo

PachucaHome
1.47 : 1.40
expected goals
TolucaAway
38%Pachuca
26%Draw
35%Toluca
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Pachuca vs Toluca is Pachuca to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Pachuca to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Pachuca 1.5, Toluca 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
12% chanceFair price 8.101 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Pachuca 38%, the draw 26% and Toluca 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Pachuca took 9 points from their last 5 games and Toluca took 7 from 5. Pachuca come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Pachuca won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Toluca won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Pachuca score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.1. Toluca score 2.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Pachuca games and 12 of Toluca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 4 meetings, Pachuca won 2 and Toluca won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Pachuca 2, Toluca 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pachucarecent form+1%
  • Tolucarecent form+1%
Pachuca form W W W L LToluca form W D D D DHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Pachuca vs Toluca: Pachuca shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Pachuca host Toluca in the Liga MX on Sat 21 Nov, 22:50 at Estadio Hidalgo. Our prediction for Pachuca vs Toluca is Pachuca to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

Pachuca form

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Toluca form

Toluca have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 4 times in our records. Pachuca won 2, Toluca won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Pachuca 2, Toluca 0.

Our call

We expect Pachuca to score about 1.5 goals and Toluca about 1.4. That points to Pachuca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 8.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PachucaToluca
Games played2020
Wins98
Draws47
Losses75
Goals scored3340
Goals conceded2125
Scored per game1.62.0
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record3W 3D 3L5W 3D 3L
Away record6W 1D 4L3W 4D 2L
Clean sheets35%30%
Both teams scored50%60%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.82
Over 3.5 goals32%3.08
Both teams to score59%1.70
Pachuca or Draw65%1.54
Toluca or Draw62%1.63
Pachuca to win and Over 2.525%4.04
Toluca to win and Over 2.522%4.45
Pachuca clean sheet25%4.06
Toluca clean sheet23%4.36

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%
2-18.6%
1-28.2%
1-07.6%
0-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Pachuca vs Toluca?

Our prediction for Pachuca vs Toluca is Pachuca to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Pachuca vs Toluca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Pachuca to score 1.5 goals and Toluca 1.4.

Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Toluca?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Pachuca last 20 games and 12 of Toluca last 20.

How are Pachuca playing?

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Toluca playing?

Toluca have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, D, newest first.

What happened when Pachuca and Toluca last met?

It ended Pachuca 2, Toluca 0. In the last 4 meetings Pachuca won 2 and Toluca won 0.

What is the best bet for Pachuca vs Toluca?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pachuca against Toluca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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