Predictions › Italy › Padova vs Carrarese

Serie BSun 11 Oct, 15:15 Italy time

Padova vs Carrarese prediction

Euganeo

PadovaHome

1.53 : 1.01

expected goals

CarrareseAway

49%Padova

27%Draw

24%Carrarese

Eagle safe pickPadova or Draw

1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Padova vs Carrarese is Padova to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Padova or Draw at 1.32.

Prediction: Padova to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Padova 1.5, Carrarese 1.0
Best bet: Padova or Draw at 1.32
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Padova or Draw

76% chanceFair price 1.322 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Padova to win and Over 2.5

27% chanceFair price 3.671 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Padova 49%, the draw 27% and Carrarese 24%. The bookmakers agree and make Padova the favourite at 1.95.
2
Recent form
Padova took 7 points from their last 5 games and Carrarese took 1 from 5. Padova come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Padova won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Carrarese won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Padova score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Carrarese score 0.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Padova games and 7 of Carrarese games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Padova won 1 and Carrarese won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Padova 1, Carrarese 0.
6
The safest bet
Padova or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Carrareserecent form-6%

Padova form L W L D WCarrarese form L L L D LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Padova vs Carrarese: Padova are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Padova host Carrarese in the Serie B on Sun 11 Oct, 15:15 at Euganeo. Our prediction for Padova vs Carrarese is Padova to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Padova or Draw at 1.32.

Padova form

Padova have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Carrarese form

Carrarese have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Padova won 1, Carrarese won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Padova 1, Carrarese 0.

Our call

We expect Padova to score about 1.5 goals and Carrarese about 1.0. That points to Padova to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Padova or Draw at 1.32. Our bold bet is Padova to win and Over 2.5 at 3.67.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Padova	Carrarese
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	3
Draws	3	6
Losses	9	11
Goals scored	20	18
Goals conceded	25	26
Scored per game	1.0	0.9
Conceded per game	1.3	1.3
Home record	5W 3D 2L	2W 3D 5L
Away record	3W 0D 7L	1W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	15%
Both teams scored	45%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Padova to win	46%	2.19	1.95	-10.8%
A Draw	27%	3.77	3.30	-12.6%
Carrarese to win	24%	4.21	3.75	-10.9%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.14	1.80	-16.0%
Under 2.5 goals	47%	2.11	1.87	-11.3%
Padova -0.5	46%	2.19	1.87	-14.5%
Carrarese +0.5	48%	2.07	1.77	-14.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.15
Over 3.5 goals	25%	4.00
Both teams to score	50%	1.98
Padova or Draw	76%	1.32
Carrarese or Draw	51%	1.94
Padova to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.58
Carrarese to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.70
Padova clean sheet	36%	2.74
Carrarese clean sheet	22%	4.60

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

1-011.4%

2-19.3%

2-09.2%

0-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Padova vs Carrarese?

Our prediction for Padova vs Carrarese is Padova to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Padova or Draw at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Padova vs Carrarese?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Padova to score 1.5 goals and Carrarese 1.0.

Will both teams score in Padova vs Carrarese?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Padova last 20 games and 8 of Carrarese last 20.

How are Padova playing?

How are Carrarese playing?

What happened when Padova and Carrarese last met?

It ended Padova 1, Carrarese 0. In the last 1 meeting Padova won 1 and Carrarese won 0.

What is the best bet for Padova vs Carrarese?

Padova or Draw at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Padova against Carrarese. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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