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Predictions › Italy › Padova vs Empoli
Serie BSat 7 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Padova vs Empoli prediction

Euganeo

PadovaHome
1.19 : 0.92
expected goals
EmpoliAway
41%Padova
31%Draw
27%Empoli
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Padova vs Empoli is Padova to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction
Padova to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Padova 1.2, Empoli 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.111 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Padova 41%, the draw 31% and Empoli 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Padova took 6 points from their last 5 games and Empoli took 1 from 5. Padova come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Padova won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Empoli won 1 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Padova score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Empoli score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Padova games and 9 of Empoli games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Padova won 1 and Empoli won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Padova 1, Empoli 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Padovarecent form-3%
  • Empolirecent form-4%
  • Padovarest between games-5%
  • Empolirest between games-5%
Padova form D W L L LEmpoli form D L D L LHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Padova vs Empoli: Padova shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Padova host Empoli in the Serie B on Sat 7 Nov, 14:00 at Euganeo. Our prediction for Padova vs Empoli is Padova to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Padova form

Padova have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Empoli form

Empoli have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Padova won 1, Empoli won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Padova 1, Empoli 0.

Our call

We expect Padova to score about 1.2 goals and Empoli about 0.9. That points to Padova to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.11.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PadovaEmpoli
Games played2020
Wins84
Draws25
Losses1011
Goals scored2022
Goals conceded2632
Scored per game1.01.1
Conceded per game1.31.6
Home record5W 2D 4L3W 2D 3L
Away record3W 0D 6L1W 3D 8L
Clean sheets35%15%
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals35%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.59
Over 2.5 goals35%2.85
Over 3.5 goals16%6.18
Both teams to score42%2.35
Padova or Draw73%1.38
Empoli or Draw59%1.71
Padova to win and Over 2.519%5.24
Empoli to win and Over 2.512%8.36
Padova clean sheet40%2.50
Empoli clean sheet30%3.28

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.1%
1-013.7%
0-013.0%
0-110.4%
2-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Padova vs Empoli?

Our prediction for Padova vs Empoli is Padova to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Padova vs Empoli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Padova to score 1.2 goals and Empoli 0.9.

Will both teams score in Padova vs Empoli?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Padova last 20 games and 12 of Empoli last 20.

How are Padova playing?

Padova have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Empoli playing?

Empoli have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Padova and Empoli last met?

It ended Padova 1, Empoli 0. In the last 1 meeting Padova won 1 and Empoli won 0.

What is the best bet for Padova vs Empoli?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Padova against Empoli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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