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Predictions › Italy › Padova vs Sudtirol
Serie BTue 27 Oct, 19:00 Italy time

Padova vs Sudtirol prediction

Euganeo

PadovaHome
0.94 : 1.28
expected goals
SudtirolAway
27%Padova
30%Draw
43%Sudtirol
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Padova vs Sudtirol is Sudtirol to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Sudtirol to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Padova 0.9, Sudtirol 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.221 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Padova 27%, the draw 30% and Sudtirol 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Padova took 3 points from their last 5 games and Sudtirol took 9 from 5. Sudtirol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Padova won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Sudtirol won 2 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Padova score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Sudtirol score 1.1 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Padova games and 6 of Sudtirol games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Padova won 0 and Sudtirol won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Sudtirol 3, Padova 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Padovarecent form-3%
  • Sudtirolrecent form+1%
  • Padovarest between games-5%
Padova form D L L W LSudtirol form D W L D WHome edge in this league 30% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Padova vs Sudtirol: Sudtirol shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Padova host Sudtirol in the Serie B on Tue 27 Oct, 19:00 at Euganeo. Our prediction for Padova vs Sudtirol is Sudtirol to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Padova form

Padova have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Sudtirol form

Sudtirol have 4 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Padova won 0, Sudtirol won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Sudtirol 3, Padova 0.

Our call

We expect Padova to score about 0.9 goals and Sudtirol about 1.3. That points to Sudtirol to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.22.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PadovaSudtirol
Games played2020
Wins74
Draws310
Losses106
Goals scored2021
Goals conceded2824
Scored per game1.01.1
Conceded per game1.41.2
Home record4W 3D 4L2W 7D 3L
Away record3W 0D 6L2W 3D 3L
Clean sheets25%35%
Both teams scored50%50%
Over 2.5 goals40%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.52
Over 2.5 goals38%2.60
Over 3.5 goals19%5.39
Both teams to score45%2.23
Padova or Draw57%1.77
Sudtirol or Draw73%1.36
Padova to win and Over 2.512%8.09
Sudtirol to win and Over 2.522%4.65
Padova clean sheet28%3.60
Sudtirol clean sheet39%2.57

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
0-113.1%
0-011.6%
1-09.4%
0-28.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Padova vs Sudtirol?

Our prediction for Padova vs Sudtirol is Sudtirol to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Padova vs Sudtirol?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Padova to score 0.9 goals and Sudtirol 1.3.

Will both teams score in Padova vs Sudtirol?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Padova last 20 games and 10 of Sudtirol last 20.

How are Padova playing?

Padova have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Sudtirol playing?

Sudtirol have 4 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Padova and Sudtirol last met?

It ended Sudtirol 3, Padova 0. In the last 2 meetings Padova won 0 and Sudtirol won 1.

What is the best bet for Padova vs Sudtirol?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Padova against Sudtirol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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