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Predictions › Italy › Padova vs Virtus Entella
Serie BSat 17 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Padova vs Virtus Entella prediction

Euganeo

PadovaHome
1.16 : 0.74
expected goals
Virtus EntellaAway
45%Padova
32%Draw
23%Virtus Entella
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Padova vs Virtus Entella is Padova to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Padova to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Padova 1.2, Virtus Entella 0.7
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
37%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
17% chanceFair price 6.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Padova 45%, the draw 32% and Virtus Entella 23%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Padova took 7 points from their last 5 games and Virtus Entella took 5 from 5. Padova come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Padova won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Virtus Entella won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Padova score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.3. Virtus Entella score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Padova games and 11 of Virtus Entella games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Padova won 1 and Virtus Entella won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Virtus Entella 1, Padova 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Virtus Entellarecent form-1%
Padova form L W L D WVirtus Entella form D W D L LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Padova vs Virtus Entella: Padova are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Padova host Virtus Entella in the Serie B on Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 at Euganeo. Our prediction for Padova vs Virtus Entella is Padova to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

Padova form

Padova have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Virtus Entella form

Virtus Entella have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Padova won 1, Virtus Entella won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Virtus Entella 1, Padova 0.

Our call

We expect Padova to score about 1.2 goals and Virtus Entella about 0.7. That points to Padova to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PadovaVirtus Entella
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws34
Losses99
Goals scored2023
Goals conceded2527
Scored per game1.01.1
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record5W 3D 2L5W 2D 3L
Away record3W 0D 7L2W 2D 6L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored45%50%
Over 2.5 goals35%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals57%1.74
Over 2.5 goals30%3.38
Over 3.5 goals13%7.98
Both teams to score37%2.73
Padova or Draw77%1.29
Virtus Entella or Draw55%1.82
Padova to win and Over 2.518%5.44
Virtus Entella to win and Over 2.58%12.16
Padova clean sheet48%2.09
Virtus Entella clean sheet31%3.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.6%
0-015.7%
1-113.6%
0-110.3%
2-010.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Padova vs Virtus Entella?

Our prediction for Padova vs Virtus Entella is Padova to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Padova vs Virtus Entella?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect Padova to score 1.2 goals and Virtus Entella 0.7.

Will both teams score in Padova vs Virtus Entella?

Both teams to score has a 37% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Padova last 20 games and 10 of Virtus Entella last 20.

How are Padova playing?

Padova have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Virtus Entella playing?

Virtus Entella have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Padova and Virtus Entella last met?

It ended Virtus Entella 1, Padova 0. In the last 2 meetings Padova won 1 and Virtus Entella won 1.

What is the best bet for Padova vs Virtus Entella?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Padova against Virtus Entella. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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