Predictions › Conference League › Pafos vs Riga FC

Conference LeagueThu 22 Oct, 16:45 UTC

Pafos vs Riga FC prediction

Alphamega Stadium

PafosHome

1.74 : 1.39

expected goals

Riga FCAway

45%Pafos

25%Draw

30%Riga FC

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Pafos vs Riga FC is Pafos to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Pafos to win
Chance: 45%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Pafos 1.7, Riga FC 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 62%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Pafos to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Pafos 45%, the draw 25% and Riga FC 30%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Pafosrecent form+1%
Riga FCrecent form+4%
Pafosrest between games-3%

Pafos form W D D L WRiga FC form W D D W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Pafos vs Riga FC: Pafos are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Pafos host Riga FC in the Conference League on Thu 22 Oct, 16:45 at Alphamega Stadium. Our prediction for Pafos vs Riga FC is Pafos to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Pafos form

Pafos have 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses in their last 8 games, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Riga FC form

Riga FC have no recent games in our records yet.

Our call

We expect Pafos to score about 1.7 goals and Riga FC about 1.4. That points to Pafos to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Pafos to win and Over 2.5 at 3.39.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 8 games in all competitions.

	Pafos	Riga FC
Games played	8	n/a
Wins	2	n/a
Draws	3	n/a
Losses	3	n/a
Goals scored	8	n/a
Goals conceded	11	n/a
Scored per game	1.0	n/a
Conceded per game	1.4	n/a
Home record	2W 1D 1L	n/a
Away record	0W 2D 2L	n/a
Clean sheets	38%	n/a
Both teams scored	38%	n/a
Over 2.5 goals	38%	n/a

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	82%	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	60%	1.66
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.63
Both teams to score	62%	1.60
Pafos or Draw	70%	1.43
Riga FC or Draw	55%	1.82
Pafos to win and Over 2.5	31%	3.17
Riga FC to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.87
Pafos clean sheet	25%	4.01
Riga FC clean sheet	18%	5.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%

2-19.2%

1-27.4%

1-07.0%

2-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Pafos vs Riga FC?

Our prediction for Pafos vs Riga FC is Pafos to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Pafos vs Riga FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Pafos to score 1.7 goals and Riga FC 1.4.

Will both teams score in Pafos vs Riga FC?

Both teams to score has a 62% chance.

How are Pafos playing?

What is the best bet for Pafos vs Riga FC?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pafos against Riga FC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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