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Predictions › Italy › Palermo vs Padova
Serie BSat 19 Sept, 13:00 Italy time

Palermo vs Padova prediction

Stadio Renzo Barbera

PalermoHome
2.15 : 0.66
expected goals
PadovaAway
71%Palermo
19%Draw
10%Padova
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Palermo vs Padova is Palermo to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Palermo to win
Chance
71%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Palermo 2.1, Padova 0.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Palermo to win and Over 2.5
42% chanceFair price 2.351 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Palermo 71%, the draw 19% and Padova 10%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Palermo took 12 points from their last 5 games and Padova took 10 from 5. Palermo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Palermo won 9 of their last 10 games at home. Padova won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Palermo score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.1. Padova score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Palermo games and 7 of Padova games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Palermo won 2 and Padova won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Padova 0, Palermo 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Palermorecent form+7%
  • Padovarest between games-5%
Palermo form W W W W WPadova form W L D W LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Palermo vs Padova: Palermo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Palermo host Padova in the Serie B on Sat 19 Sept, 13:00 at Stadio Renzo Barbera. Our prediction for Palermo vs Padova is Palermo to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Palermo form

Palermo have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Padova form

Padova have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Palermo won 2, Padova won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Padova 0, Palermo 1.

Our call

We expect Palermo to score about 2.1 goals and Padova about 0.7. That points to Palermo to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Palermo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.35.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PalermoPadova
Games played2020
Wins128
Draws44
Losses48
Goals scored3422
Goals conceded2326
Scored per game1.71.1
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record9W 1D 0L5W 3D 2L
Away record3W 3D 4L3W 1D 6L
Clean sheets40%30%
Both teams scored45%45%
Over 2.5 goals55%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.88
Over 3.5 goals31%3.23
Both teams to score43%2.33
Palermo or Draw91%1.10
Padova or Draw29%3.49
Palermo to win and Over 2.545%2.23
Padova to win and Over 2.55%21.10
Palermo clean sheet52%1.93
Padova clean sheet12%8.58

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-014.0%
1-012.5%
3-010.0%
2-19.2%
1-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Palermo vs Padova?

Our prediction for Palermo vs Padova is Palermo to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Palermo vs Padova?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 3-0. We expect Palermo to score 2.1 goals and Padova 0.7.

Will both teams score in Palermo vs Padova?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Palermo last 20 games and 9 of Padova last 20.

How are Palermo playing?

Palermo have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Padova playing?

Padova have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Palermo and Padova last met?

It ended Padova 0, Palermo 1. In the last 2 meetings Palermo won 2 and Padova won 0.

What is the best bet for Palermo vs Padova?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Palermo against Padova. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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