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Predictions › Chile › Palestino vs Universidad Católica
Chilean Primera DivisionSat 12 Sept, 23:00 Chile time

Palestino vs Universidad Católica prediction

Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna

PalestinoHome
1.42 : 1.45
expected goals
Universidad CatólicaAway
36%Palestino
26%Draw
38%U Católica
Eagle value pickPalestino to win
2.90

Quick answer

Our prediction for Palestino vs Universidad Católica is Universidad Católica to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Palestino to win at 2.90.

Prediction
Universidad Católica to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Palestino 1.4, Universidad Católica 1.4
Best bet
Palestino to win at 2.90
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
★

Eagle value pick

Palestino to win
36% chancePrice 2.90+4.7% value2 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
12% chanceFair price 8.061 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Palestino 36%, the draw 26% and Universidad Católica 38%. The bookmakers agree and make Universidad Católica the favourite at 2.35.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Palestino took 9 points from their last 5 games and Universidad Católica took 9 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Palestino won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Universidad Católica won 7 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Palestino score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.3. Universidad Católica score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Palestino games and 12 of Universidad Católica games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Palestino won 0 and Universidad Católica won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Universidad Católica 6, Palestino 1.

  6. 6
    Where the value is

    Palestino to win is priced at 2.90. Our fair price is 2.77, so the bookmaker pays about 4.7% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Palestinorecent form+1%
  • U Católicarecent form+1%
Palestino form W L W W LU Católica form W W W L LHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Palestino vs Universidad Católica: Universidad Católica shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Palestino host Universidad Católica in the Chilean Primera Division on Sat 12 Sept, 23:00 at Estadio Municipal de La Cisterna. Our prediction for Palestino vs Universidad Católica is Universidad Católica to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Palestino to win at 2.90.

Palestino form

Palestino have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Universidad Católica form

Universidad Católica have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Palestino won 0, Universidad Católica won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Universidad Católica 6, Palestino 1.

Our call

We expect Palestino to score about 1.4 goals and Universidad Católica about 1.4. That points to Universidad Católica to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.27. Our value bet is Palestino to win at 2.90. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 8.06.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PalestinoU Católica
Games played2020
Wins1111
Draws23
Losses76
Goals scored3232
Goals conceded2623
Scored per game1.61.6
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record7W 2D 1L4W 2D 4L
Away record4W 0D 6L7W 1D 2L
Clean sheets25%35%
Both teams scored55%50%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Palestino to win33%3.052.90-4.9%
A Draw26%3.893.50-9.9%
Universidad Católica to win33%2.992.35-21.4%
Over 2.5 goals54%1.841.69-8.2%
Under 2.5 goals41%2.472.10-14.9%
Palestino +0.560%1.651.59-4.0%
Universidad Católica -0.535%2.892.25-22.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.83
Over 3.5 goals32%3.10
Both teams to score59%1.71
Palestino or Draw62%1.60
Universidad Católica or Draw64%1.57
Palestino to win and Over 2.523%4.34
Universidad Católica to win and Over 2.524%4.17
Palestino clean sheet23%4.26
Universidad Católica clean sheet24%4.12

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%
1-28.5%
2-18.3%
0-17.6%
1-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Palestino vs Universidad Católica?

Our prediction for Palestino vs Universidad Católica is Universidad Católica to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Palestino to win at 2.90.

What is the score prediction for Palestino vs Universidad Católica?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Palestino to score 1.4 goals and Universidad Católica 1.4.

Will both teams score in Palestino vs Universidad Católica?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Palestino last 20 games and 10 of Universidad Católica last 20.

How are Palestino playing?

Palestino have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Universidad Católica playing?

Universidad Católica have 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Palestino and Universidad Católica last met?

It ended Universidad Católica 6, Palestino 1. In the last 2 meetings Palestino won 0 and Universidad Católica won 2.

What is the best bet for Palestino vs Universidad Católica?

Palestino to win at 2.90, with a 36% chance. That price pays about 4.7% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Palestino against U Católica. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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