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BrasileiraoFri 9 Oct, 00:30 Brazil time

Palmeiras vs Bahia prediction

Allianz Parque

PalmeirasHome

1.93 : 0.95

expected goals

BahiaAway

60%Palmeiras

23%Draw

17%Bahia

Eagle safe pickPalmeiras or Draw

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Bahia is Palmeiras to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.25.

Prediction: Palmeiras to win
Chance: 60%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.9, Bahia 0.9
Best bet: Palmeiras or Draw at 1.25
Both teams to score: 53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Palmeiras or Draw

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5

36% chanceFair price 2.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Palmeiras 60%, the draw 23% and Bahia 17%. The bookmakers agree and make Palmeiras the favourite at 1.53.
2
Recent form
Palmeiras took 8 points from their last 5 games and Bahia took 12 from 5. Bahia come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Palmeiras won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Bahia won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Palmeiras score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.8. Bahia score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Palmeiras games and 12 of Bahia games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Palmeiras won 1 and Bahia won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Bahia 1, Palmeiras 2.
6
The safest bet
Palmeiras or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Palmeirasrecent form+1%
Bahiarecent form+4%

Palmeiras form D L W W DBahia form L W W W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Palmeiras vs Bahia: Palmeiras are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Palmeiras host Bahia in the Brasileirao on Fri 9 Oct, 00:30 at Allianz Parque. Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Bahia is Palmeiras to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.25.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Bahia form

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Palmeiras won 1, Bahia won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Bahia 1, Palmeiras 2.

Our call

We expect Palmeiras to score about 1.9 goals and Bahia about 0.9. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.25. Our bold bet is Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5 at 2.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Palmeiras	Bahia
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	7
Draws	7	8
Losses	4	5
Goals scored	32	31
Goals conceded	16	28
Scored per game	1.6	1.6
Conceded per game	0.8	1.4
Home record	5W 3D 2L	4W 4D 2L
Away record	4W 4D 2L	3W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	45%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Palmeiras to win	57%	1.77	1.53	-13.7%
A Draw	22%	4.46	4.20	-5.8%
Bahia to win	17%	5.78	5.25	-9.2%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.90	1.63	-14.2%
Under 2.5 goals	41%	2.44	2.10	-13.9%
Palmeiras -0.5	58%	1.73	1.49	-14.1%
Bahia +0.5	37%	2.72	2.30	-15.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	1.27
Over 2.5 goals	55%	1.83
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.09
Both teams to score	53%	1.89
Palmeiras or Draw	83%	1.21
Bahia or Draw	40%	2.48
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5	39%	2.57
Bahia to win and Over 2.5	10%	9.89
Palmeiras clean sheet	39%	2.58
Bahia clean sheet	15%	6.86

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.9%

2-010.5%

1-010.3%

2-19.9%

3-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Bahia is Palmeiras to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Palmeiras vs Bahia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-0. We expect Palmeiras to score 1.9 goals and Bahia 0.9.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Palmeiras last 20 games and 15 of Bahia last 20.

How are Palmeiras playing?

How are Bahia playing?

What happened when Palmeiras and Bahia last met?

It ended Bahia 1, Palmeiras 2. In the last 2 meetings Palmeiras won 1 and Bahia won 1.

What is the best bet for Palmeiras vs Bahia?

Palmeiras or Draw at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Palmeiras against Bahia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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