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Predictions › Brazil › Palmeiras vs Corinthians
BrasileiraoSun 11 Oct, 20:30 Brazil time

Palmeiras vs Corinthians prediction

Allianz Parque

PalmeirasHome
1.69 : 0.67
expected goals
CorinthiansAway
61%Palmeiras
25%Draw
14%Corinthians
Eagle safe pickPalmeiras or Draw
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Corinthians is Palmeiras to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19.

Prediction
Palmeiras to win
Chance
61%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Palmeiras 1.7, Corinthians 0.7
Best bet
Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19
Both teams to score
41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Palmeiras or Draw
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.181 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Palmeiras 61%, the draw 25% and Corinthians 14%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Palmeiras took 8 points from their last 5 games and Corinthians took 1 from 5. Palmeiras come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Palmeiras won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Corinthians won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Palmeiras score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.8. Corinthians score 1.1 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Palmeiras games and 9 of Corinthians games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Palmeiras won 0 and Corinthians won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Corinthians 0, Palmeiras 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Palmeiras or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Palmeirasrecent form+1%
  • Corinthiansrecent form-6%
Palmeiras form D L W W DCorinthians form L L L D LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Palmeiras vs Corinthians: Palmeiras are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Palmeiras host Corinthians in the Brasileirao on Sun 11 Oct, 20:30 at Allianz Parque. Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Corinthians is Palmeiras to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Corinthians form

Corinthians have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Palmeiras won 0, Corinthians won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Corinthians 0, Palmeiras 0.

Our call

We expect Palmeiras to score about 1.7 goals and Corinthians about 0.7. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19. Our bold bet is Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5 at 3.18.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PalmeirasCorinthians
Games played2020
Wins96
Draws75
Losses49
Goals scored3222
Goals conceded1624
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game0.81.2
Home record5W 3D 2L4W 1D 6L
Away record4W 4D 2L2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets45%30%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals40%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals69%1.45
Over 2.5 goals42%2.37
Over 3.5 goals21%4.67
Both teams to score41%2.46
Palmeiras or Draw86%1.16
Corinthians or Draw39%2.59
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.533%3.07
Corinthians to win and Over 2.56%16.59
Palmeiras clean sheet51%1.96
Corinthians clean sheet18%5.43

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-015.3%
2-013.4%
1-111.3%
0-010.0%
2-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Corinthians is Palmeiras to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Palmeiras to score 1.7 goals and Corinthians 0.7.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Palmeiras last 20 games and 11 of Corinthians last 20.

How are Palmeiras playing?

Palmeiras have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Corinthians playing?

Corinthians have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Palmeiras and Corinthians last met?

It ended Corinthians 0, Palmeiras 0. In the last 1 meeting Palmeiras won 0 and Corinthians won 0.

What is the best bet for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?

Palmeiras or Draw at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Palmeiras against Corinthians. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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