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Predictions › Brazil › Palmeiras vs Flamengo
BrasileiraoSat 21 Nov, 19:30 Brazil time

Palmeiras vs Flamengo prediction

Allianz Parque

PalmeirasHome
1.47 : 1.30
expected goals
FlamengoAway
40%Palmeiras
27%Draw
33%Flamengo
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Flamengo is Palmeiras to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Palmeiras to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Palmeiras 1.5, Flamengo 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.871 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Palmeiras 40%, the draw 27% and Flamengo 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Palmeiras took 10 points from their last 5 games and Flamengo took 13 from 5. Flamengo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Palmeiras won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Flamengo won 5 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Palmeiras score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.7. Flamengo score 2.0 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Palmeiras games and 11 of Flamengo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Palmeiras won 1 and Flamengo won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Flamengo 0, Palmeiras 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Palmeirasrecent form+3%
  • Flamengorecent form+6%
Palmeiras form L W W D WFlamengo form W W W D WHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Palmeiras vs Flamengo: Palmeiras shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Palmeiras host Flamengo in the Brasileirao on Sat 21 Nov, 19:30 at Allianz Parque. Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Flamengo is Palmeiras to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Palmeiras won 1, Flamengo won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Flamengo 0, Palmeiras 3.

Our call

We expect Palmeiras to score about 1.5 goals and Flamengo about 1.3. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.87.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PalmeirasFlamengo
Games played2020
Wins1114
Draws65
Losses31
Goals scored3540
Goals conceded1314
Scored per game1.82.0
Conceded per game0.70.7
Home record7W 2D 1L9W 2D 0L
Away record4W 4D 2L5W 3D 1L
Clean sheets55%45%
Both teams scored40%55%
Over 2.5 goals35%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.91
Over 3.5 goals30%3.32
Both teams to score57%1.76
Palmeiras or Draw67%1.49
Flamengo or Draw60%1.68
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.525%3.97
Flamengo to win and Over 2.520%4.99
Palmeiras clean sheet27%3.67
Flamengo clean sheet23%4.34

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
2-18.8%
1-08.5%
1-27.8%
0-17.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Palmeiras vs Flamengo?

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Flamengo is Palmeiras to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Palmeiras to score 1.5 goals and Flamengo 1.3.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Flamengo?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Palmeiras last 20 games and 11 of Flamengo last 20.

How are Palmeiras playing?

Palmeiras have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Flamengo playing?

Flamengo have 14 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Palmeiras and Flamengo last met?

It ended Flamengo 0, Palmeiras 3. In the last 3 meetings Palmeiras won 1 and Flamengo won 2.

What is the best bet for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Palmeiras against Flamengo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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