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Predictions › Copa Libertadores › Palmeiras vs Fluminense
Copa LibertadoresThu 22 Oct, 00:30 UTC

Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction

Allianz Parque

PalmeirasHome
1.78 : 0.66
expected goals
FluminenseAway
64%Palmeiras
24%Draw
13%Fluminense
Eagle safe pickPalmeiras or Draw
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Fluminense is Palmeiras to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.18.

Prediction
Palmeiras to win
Chance
64%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Palmeiras 1.8, Fluminense 0.7
Best bet
Palmeiras or Draw at 1.18
Both teams to score
41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Palmeiras or Draw
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Palmeiras 64%, the draw 24% and Fluminense 13%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Palmeiras took 10 points from their last 5 games and Fluminense took 6 from 5. Palmeiras come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Palmeiras won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Fluminense won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Palmeiras score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Fluminense score 1.5 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Palmeiras games and 9 of Fluminense games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Palmeiras won 1 and Fluminense won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Fluminense 3, Palmeiras 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Palmeiras or Draw has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Palmeirasrecent form+1%
  • Palmeirasrest between games-5%
  • Fluminenserest between games-5%
Palmeiras form D W D L WFluminense form D W W L LHome edge in this league 37% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Palmeiras vs Fluminense: Palmeiras are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Palmeiras host Fluminense in the Copa Libertadores on Thu 22 Oct, 00:30 at Allianz Parque. Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Fluminense is Palmeiras to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.18.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Fluminense form

Fluminense have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Palmeiras won 1, Fluminense won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Fluminense 3, Palmeiras 2.

Our call

We expect Palmeiras to score about 1.8 goals and Fluminense about 0.7. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.18. Our bold bet is Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5 at 3.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PalmeirasFluminense
Games played2020
Wins118
Draws58
Losses44
Goals scored3530
Goals conceded1521
Scored per game1.81.5
Conceded per game0.81.1
Home record7W 2D 2L7W 3D 0L
Away record4W 3D 2L1W 5D 4L
Clean sheets50%25%
Both teams scored45%65%
Over 2.5 goals45%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.42
Over 2.5 goals44%2.27
Over 3.5 goals23%4.36
Both teams to score41%2.46
Palmeiras or Draw87%1.14
Fluminense or Draw36%2.76
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.535%2.86
Fluminense to win and Over 2.56%17.82
Palmeiras clean sheet52%1.93
Fluminense clean sheet17%5.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.9%
2-013.8%
1-110.9%
0-09.3%
2-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Fluminense is Palmeiras to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras or Draw at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Palmeiras to score 1.8 goals and Fluminense 0.7.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Palmeiras last 20 games and 13 of Fluminense last 20.

How are Palmeiras playing?

Palmeiras have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Fluminense playing?

Fluminense have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Palmeiras and Fluminense last met?

It ended Fluminense 3, Palmeiras 2. In the last 3 meetings Palmeiras won 1 and Fluminense won 1.

What is the best bet for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?

Palmeiras or Draw at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Palmeiras against Fluminense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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