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BrasileiraoSat 24 Oct, 21:30 Brazil time

Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino prediction

Arena Barueri

PalmeirasHome

1.77 : 0.58

expected goals

Red Bull BragantinoAway

66%Palmeiras

23%Draw

11%Bragantino

Eagle safe pickPalmeiras draw no bet

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino is Palmeiras to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras draw no bet at 1.19.

Prediction: Palmeiras to win
Chance: 66%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.8, Red Bull Bragantino 0.6
Best bet: Palmeiras draw no bet at 1.19
Both teams to score: 37%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Palmeiras draw no bet

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5

33% chanceFair price 3.001 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Palmeiras 66%, the draw 23% and Red Bull Bragantino 11%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Palmeiras took 10 points from their last 5 games and Red Bull Bragantino took 5 from 5. Palmeiras come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Palmeiras won 7 of their last 11 games at home. Red Bull Bragantino won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Palmeiras score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Red Bull Bragantino score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Palmeiras games and 9 of Red Bull Bragantino games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Palmeiras won 2 and Red Bull Bragantino won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Red Bull Bragantino 0, Palmeiras 1.
6
The safest bet
Palmeiras draw no bet has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Palmeirasrecent form+1%
Bragantinorecent form-3%
Bragantinorest between games-2%

Palmeiras form D W D L WBragantino form D D L L DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino: Palmeiras are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Palmeiras host Red Bull Bragantino in the Brasileirao on Sat 24 Oct, 21:30 at Arena Barueri. Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino is Palmeiras to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras draw no bet at 1.19.

Palmeiras form

Palmeiras have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Red Bull Bragantino form

Red Bull Bragantino have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Palmeiras won 2, Red Bull Bragantino won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Red Bull Bragantino 0, Palmeiras 1.

Our call

We expect Palmeiras to score about 1.8 goals and Red Bull Bragantino about 0.6. That points to Palmeiras to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Palmeiras draw no bet at 1.19. Our bold bet is Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5 at 3.00.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Palmeiras	Bragantino
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	7
Draws	5	5
Losses	4	8
Goals scored	35	28
Goals conceded	15	25
Scored per game	1.8	1.4
Conceded per game	0.8	1.3
Home record	7W 2D 2L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	4W 3D 2L	2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	50%	20%
Both teams scored	45%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.45
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.38
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.70
Both teams to score	37%	2.68
Palmeiras or Draw	89%	1.12
Red Bull Bragantino or Draw	34%	2.91
Palmeiras to win and Over 2.5	35%	2.89
Red Bull Bragantino to win and Over 2.5	5%	22.14
Palmeiras clean sheet	56%	1.79
Red Bull Bragantino clean sheet	17%	5.89

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.2%

2-014.9%

1-110.4%

0-010.0%

3-08.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino?

Our prediction for Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino is Palmeiras to win, with a 66% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Palmeiras draw no bet at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Palmeiras to score 1.8 goals and Red Bull Bragantino 0.6.

Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino?

Both teams to score has a 37% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Palmeiras last 20 games and 12 of Red Bull Bragantino last 20.

How are Palmeiras playing?

How are Red Bull Bragantino playing?

What happened when Palmeiras and Red Bull Bragantino last met?

It ended Red Bull Bragantino 0, Palmeiras 1. In the last 2 meetings Palmeiras won 2 and Red Bull Bragantino won 0.

What is the best bet for Palmeiras vs Red Bull Bragantino?

Palmeiras draw no bet at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Palmeiras against Bragantino. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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