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Predictions › Greece › PAOK vs Aris
Greek Super LeagueSun 13 Sept, 18:00 Greece time

PAOK vs Aris prediction

Toumba Stadium

PAOKHome
1.85 : 0.78
expected goals
ArisAway
62%PAOK
23%Draw
15%Aris
Eagle safe pickPAOK to win
1.61

Quick answer

Our prediction for PAOK vs Aris is PAOK to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is PAOK to win at 1.61.

Prediction
PAOK to win
Chance
62%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
PAOK 1.9, Aris 0.8
Best bet
PAOK to win at 1.61
Both teams to score
46%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

PAOK to win
63% chancePrice 1.61+1.4% value1 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

PAOK to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.921 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives PAOK 62%, the draw 23% and Aris 15%. The bookmakers agree and make PAOK the favourite at 1.61.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    PAOK took 8 points from their last 5 games and Aris took 12 from 5. Aris come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    PAOK won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Aris won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    PAOK score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.0. Aris score 1.3 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of PAOK games and 9 of Aris games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, PAOK won 1 and Aris won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Aris 0, PAOK 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    PAOK to win has a 63% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Arisrecent form+4%
PAOK form L W L W DAris form L W W W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

PAOK vs Aris: PAOK are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

PAOK host Aris in the Greek Super League on Sun 13 Sept, 18:00 at Toumba Stadium. Our prediction for PAOK vs Aris is PAOK to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is PAOK to win at 1.61.

PAOK form

PAOK have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Aris form

Aris have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. PAOK won 1, Aris won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Aris 0, PAOK 0.

Our call

We expect PAOK to score about 1.9 goals and Aris about 0.8. That points to PAOK to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is PAOK to win at 1.61. Our bold bet is PAOK to win and Over 2.5 at 2.92.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PAOKAris
Games played2020
Wins78
Draws88
Losses54
Goals scored3026
Goals conceded2024
Scored per game1.51.3
Conceded per game1.01.2
Home record5W 3D 1L4W 5D 1L
Away record2W 5D 4L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets35%30%
Both teams scored55%55%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
PAOK to win63%1.581.61+1.4%
A Draw22%4.624.10-11.3%
Aris to win13%7.885.25-33.4%
Over 2.5 goals47%2.151.95-9.2%
Under 2.5 goals51%1.961.80-8.2%
PAOK -0.561%1.641.57-4.3%
Aris +0.537%2.722.25-17.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.35
Over 2.5 goals49%2.05
Over 3.5 goals27%3.72
Both teams to score46%2.17
PAOK or Draw85%1.17
Aris or Draw38%2.64
PAOK to win and Over 2.537%2.70
Aris to win and Over 2.57%13.60
PAOK clean sheet46%2.17
Aris clean sheet16%6.34

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-012.8%
2-012.4%
1-111.0%
2-19.6%
0-07.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win PAOK vs Aris?

Our prediction for PAOK vs Aris is PAOK to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is PAOK to win at 1.61.

What is the score prediction for PAOK vs Aris?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect PAOK to score 1.9 goals and Aris 0.8.

Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris?

Both teams to score has a 46% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of PAOK last 20 games and 11 of Aris last 20.

How are PAOK playing?

PAOK have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

How are Aris playing?

Aris have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when PAOK and Aris last met?

It ended Aris 0, PAOK 0. In the last 2 meetings PAOK won 1 and Aris won 0.

What is the best bet for PAOK vs Aris?

PAOK to win at 1.61, with a 63% chance. That price pays about 1.4% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in PAOK against Aris. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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