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Predictions › France › Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes
Ligue 1Sat 7 Nov, 19:45 France time

Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes prediction

Parc des Princes

Paris Saint-GermainHome
3.33 : 1.04
expected goals
TroyesAway
80%PSG
12%Draw
8%Troyes
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes is Paris Saint-Germain to win, with a 80% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Chance
80%
Most likely score
3-1
Expected goals
Paris Saint-Germain 3.3, Troyes 1.0
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Paris Saint-Germain to win and both score
45% chanceFair price 2.241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Paris Saint-Germain 80%, the draw 12% and Troyes 8%. The bookmakers agree and make Paris Saint-Germain the favourite at 1.13.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Paris Saint-Germain took 15 points from their last 5 games and Troyes took 1 from 5. Paris Saint-Germain come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Paris Saint-Germain won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Troyes won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Paris Saint-Germain score 2.5 goals a game and let in 1.2. Troyes score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Paris Saint-Germain games and 11 of Troyes games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • PSGrecent form+6%
  • Troyesrecent form-6%
  • PSGrest between games-2%
  • PSGteam news-1%
PSG form D W W W WTroyes form D L L L LHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes: Paris Saint-Germain are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Paris Saint-Germain host Troyes in the Ligue 1 on Sat 7 Nov, 19:45 at Parc des Princes. Our prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes is Paris Saint-Germain to win, with a 80% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.23.

Paris Saint-Germain form

Paris Saint-Germain have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Troyes form

Troyes have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Paris Saint-Germain to score about 3.3 goals and Troyes about 1.0. That points to Paris Saint-Germain to win, with 3-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Paris Saint-Germain to win and both score at 2.24.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PSGTroyes
Games played2020
Wins139
Draws54
Losses27
Goals scored4931
Goals conceded2427
Scored per game2.51.6
Conceded per game1.21.4
Home record7W 2D 1L5W 1D 3L
Away record6W 3D 1L4W 3D 4L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored70%45%
Over 2.5 goals70%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Paris Saint-Germain to win81%1.241.13-8.7%
A Draw11%8.829.00+2.1%
Troyes to win7%14.5613.00-10.7%
Over 3.5 goals52%1.921.69-11.8%
Under 3.5 goals42%2.392.05-14.3%
Paris Saint-Germain -2.544%2.251.91-15.2%
Troyes +2.550%2.021.71-15.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals93%1.07
Over 2.5 goals81%1.23
Over 3.5 goals63%1.58
Both teams to score63%1.60
Paris Saint-Germain or Draw92%1.08
Troyes or Draw20%5.11
Paris Saint-Germain to win and Over 2.569%1.44
Troyes to win and Over 2.56%16.72
Paris Saint-Germain clean sheet35%2.83
Troyes clean sheet4%27.82

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

3-18.1%
3-07.8%
2-17.3%
2-07.0%
4-16.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Ligue 1

Luis Enrique Backs Khvicha Kvaratskhelia After Season Ending Knee Injury

PSG winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury as Paris Saint-Germain prepare for Lyon.

25 Oct 2026
Champions League

Barcelona Captain Raphinha Shrugs Off PSG Defeat Before El Clasico

Barcelona captain Raphinha says their 4-2 defeat against PSG will not affect their preparations for the upcoming clash with Real Madrid.

21 Oct 2026
Champions League

Barcelona Complain to UEFA Over Chainsaw Display by PSG Fans

Barcelona have reported PSG to UEFA after Parisian supporters displayed an aggressive pre match banner.

21 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?

Our prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes is Paris Saint-Germain to win, with a 80% chance. The most likely score is 3-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?

3-1 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect Paris Saint-Germain to score 3.3 goals and Troyes 1.0.

Will both teams score in Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Paris Saint-Germain last 20 games and 9 of Troyes last 20.

How are Paris Saint-Germain playing?

Paris Saint-Germain have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 49 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Troyes playing?

Troyes have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Paris Saint-Germain vs Troyes?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in PSG against Troyes. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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