Predictions › France › Pau vs Dunkerque

Ligue 2Fri 18 Sept, 18:00 France time

Pau vs Dunkerque prediction

Nouste Camp

PauHome

1.38 : 1.44

expected goals

DunkerqueAway

35%Pau

27%Draw

38%Dunkerque

Eagle safe pickDunkerque +0.5

1.51

Quick answer

Our prediction for Pau vs Dunkerque is Dunkerque to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Dunkerque +0.5 at 1.51.

Prediction: Dunkerque to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Pau 1.4, Dunkerque 1.4
Best bet: Dunkerque +0.5 at 1.51
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Dunkerque +0.5

62% chancePrice 1.511 unit

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Dunkerque to win

35% chancePrice 2.851 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Pau 35%, the draw 27% and Dunkerque 38%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Pau the favourite at 2.40, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Pau took 5 points from their last 5 games and Dunkerque took 5 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Pau won 1 of their last 9 games at home. Dunkerque won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Pau score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.8. Dunkerque score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Pau games and 9 of Dunkerque games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Pau won 0 and Dunkerque won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Dunkerque 3, Pau 1.
6
The safest bet
Dunkerque +0.5 has a 62% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Paurecent form-1%
Dunkerquerecent form-1%
Paurest between games-5%
Dunkerquerest between games-5%

Pau form L D D L WDunkerque form W D L L DHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Pau vs Dunkerque: Dunkerque shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Pau host Dunkerque in the Ligue 2 on Fri 18 Sept, 18:00 at Nouste Camp. Our prediction for Pau vs Dunkerque is Dunkerque to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Dunkerque +0.5 at 1.51.

Pau form

Pau have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, L, W, newest first.

Dunkerque form

Dunkerque have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Pau won 0, Dunkerque won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Dunkerque 3, Pau 1.

Our call

We expect Pau to score about 1.4 goals and Dunkerque about 1.4. That points to Dunkerque to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Dunkerque +0.5 at 1.51. Our bold bet is Dunkerque to win at 2.85.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Pau	Dunkerque
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	4
Draws	4	6
Losses	10	10
Goals scored	23	28
Goals conceded	35	33
Scored per game	1.1	1.4
Conceded per game	1.8	1.6
Home record	1W 3D 5L	2W 5D 4L
Away record	5W 1D 5L	2W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	5%
Both teams scored	45%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Pau to win	33%	3.05	2.40	-21.3%
A Draw	25%	3.99	3.25	-18.5%
Dunkerque to win	35%	2.85	2.85	-0.1%
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.95	1.77	-9.4%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.16	1.87	-13.4%
Pau -0.5	36%	2.81	2.25	-19.9%
Dunkerque +0.5	62%	1.61	1.51	-5.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	53%	1.87
Over 3.5 goals	31%	3.21
Both teams to score	58%	1.73
Pau or Draw	62%	1.61
Dunkerque or Draw	65%	1.55
Pau to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.52
Dunkerque to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.17
Pau clean sheet	24%	4.21
Dunkerque clean sheet	25%	3.96

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%

1-28.5%

2-18.2%

0-17.9%

1-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Pau vs Dunkerque?

Our prediction for Pau vs Dunkerque is Dunkerque to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Dunkerque +0.5 at 1.51.

What is the score prediction for Pau vs Dunkerque?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Pau to score 1.4 goals and Dunkerque 1.4.

Will both teams score in Pau vs Dunkerque?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Pau last 20 games and 13 of Dunkerque last 20.

How are Pau playing?

How are Dunkerque playing?

What happened when Pau and Dunkerque last met?

It ended Dunkerque 3, Pau 1. In the last 2 meetings Pau won 0 and Dunkerque won 2.

What is the best bet for Pau vs Dunkerque?

Dunkerque +0.5 at 1.51, with a 62% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Pau against Dunkerque. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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