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Predictions › Uruguay › Peñarol vs Albion FC
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 13 Sept, 22:30 Uruguay time

Peñarol vs Albion FC prediction

Estadio Centenario

PeñarolHome
1.74 : 0.77
expected goals
Albion FCAway
60%Peñarol
25%Draw
15%Albion
Eagle safe pickAlbion FC +1.5
1.54

Quick answer

Our prediction for Peñarol vs Albion FC is Peñarol to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Albion FC +1.5 at 1.54.

Prediction
Peñarol to win
Chance
60%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Peñarol 1.7, Albion FC 0.8
Best bet
Albion FC +1.5 at 1.54
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Albion FC +1.5
62% chancePrice 1.541 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Peñarol to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.111 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Peñarol 60%, the draw 25% and Albion FC 15%. The bookmakers agree and make Peñarol the favourite at 1.44.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Peñarol took 10 points from their last 5 games and Albion FC took 0 from 5. Peñarol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Peñarol won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Albion FC won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Peñarol score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.8. Albion FC score 1.4 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Peñarol games and 10 of Albion FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Peñarol won 1 and Albion FC won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Albion FC 0, Peñarol 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Albion FC +1.5 has a 62% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Peñarolrecent form+3%
  • Albionrecent form-7%
Peñarol form W L D W WAlbion form L L L L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Peñarol vs Albion FC: Peñarol are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Peñarol host Albion FC in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 13 Sept, 22:30 at Estadio Centenario. Our prediction for Peñarol vs Albion FC is Peñarol to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Albion FC +1.5 at 1.54.

Peñarol form

Peñarol have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Albion FC form

Albion FC have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Peñarol won 1, Albion FC won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Albion FC 0, Peñarol 1.

Our call

We expect Peñarol to score about 1.7 goals and Albion FC about 0.8. That points to Peñarol to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Albion FC +1.5 at 1.54. Our bold bet is Peñarol to win and Over 2.5 at 3.11.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PeñarolAlbion
Games played2020
Wins97
Draws65
Losses58
Goals scored3127
Goals conceded1724
Scored per game1.61.4
Conceded per game0.81.2
Home record5W 3D 3L3W 3D 4L
Away record4W 3D 2L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets30%15%
Both teams scored45%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Peñarol to win61%1.641.44-12.3%
A Draw23%4.354.10-5.8%
Albion FC to win14%7.326.00-18.0%
Over 2.5 goals46%2.191.91-12.9%
Under 2.5 goals52%1.931.77-8.2%
Peñarol -1.536%2.802.25-19.5%
Albion FC +1.562%1.611.54-4.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.38
Over 2.5 goals46%2.18
Over 3.5 goals25%4.08
Both teams to score45%2.23
Peñarol or Draw85%1.18
Albion FC or Draw40%2.50
Peñarol to win and Over 2.534%2.92
Albion FC to win and Over 2.58%13.30
Peñarol clean sheet46%2.16
Albion FC clean sheet17%5.72

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.5%
2-012.3%
1-111.5%
2-19.5%
0-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Peñarol vs Albion FC?

Our prediction for Peñarol vs Albion FC is Peñarol to win, with a 60% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Albion FC +1.5 at 1.54.

What is the score prediction for Peñarol vs Albion FC?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Peñarol to score 1.7 goals and Albion FC 0.8.

Will both teams score in Peñarol vs Albion FC?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Peñarol last 20 games and 12 of Albion FC last 20.

How are Peñarol playing?

Peñarol have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Albion FC playing?

Albion FC have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Peñarol and Albion FC last met?

It ended Albion FC 0, Peñarol 1. In the last 1 meeting Peñarol won 1 and Albion FC won 0.

What is the best bet for Peñarol vs Albion FC?

Albion FC +1.5 at 1.54, with a 62% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Peñarol against Albion. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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