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Predictions › Uruguay › Peñarol vs Progreso
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSat 10 Oct, 21:00 Uruguay time

Peñarol vs Progreso prediction

Estadio Campeón del Siglo

PeñarolHome
1.77 : 0.77
expected goals
ProgresoAway
61%Peñarol
24%Draw
15%Progreso
Eagle safe pickPeñarol or Draw
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Peñarol vs Progreso is Peñarol to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Peñarol or Draw at 1.22.

Prediction
Peñarol to win
Chance
61%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Peñarol 1.8, Progreso 0.8
Best bet
Peñarol or Draw at 1.22
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Peñarol or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Peñarol to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 3.031 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Peñarol 61%, the draw 24% and Progreso 15%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Peñarol took 12 points from their last 5 games and Progreso took 12 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Peñarol won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Progreso won 3 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Peñarol score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Progreso score 0.8 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Peñarol games and 9 of Progreso games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Peñarol won 1 and Progreso won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Progreso 0, Peñarol 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Peñarol or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Peñarolrecent form+4%
  • Progresorecent form+4%
Peñarol form W W W W LProgreso form W W L W WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Peñarol vs Progreso: Peñarol are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Peñarol host Progreso in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sat 10 Oct, 21:00 at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Our prediction for Peñarol vs Progreso is Peñarol to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Peñarol or Draw at 1.22.

Peñarol form

Peñarol have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Progreso form

Progreso have 7 wins, 0 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Peñarol won 1, Progreso won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Progreso 0, Peñarol 2.

Our call

We expect Peñarol to score about 1.8 goals and Progreso about 0.8. That points to Peñarol to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Peñarol or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Peñarol to win and Over 2.5 at 3.03.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PeñarolProgreso
Games played2020
Wins127
Draws50
Losses313
Goals scored3616
Goals conceded1526
Scored per game1.80.8
Conceded per game0.81.3
Home record7W 2D 3L4W 0D 5L
Away record5W 3D 0L3W 0D 8L
Clean sheets30%15%
Both teams scored55%45%
Over 2.5 goals50%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.38
Over 2.5 goals47%2.15
Over 3.5 goals25%3.99
Both teams to score45%2.21
Peñarol or Draw85%1.18
Progreso or Draw39%2.54
Peñarol to win and Over 2.535%2.87
Progreso to win and Over 2.57%13.42
Peñarol clean sheet46%2.16
Progreso clean sheet17%5.86

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.3%
2-012.4%
1-111.4%
2-19.5%
0-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Peñarol vs Progreso?

Our prediction for Peñarol vs Progreso is Peñarol to win, with a 61% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Peñarol or Draw at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Peñarol vs Progreso?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Peñarol to score 1.8 goals and Progreso 0.8.

Will both teams score in Peñarol vs Progreso?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Peñarol last 20 games and 9 of Progreso last 20.

How are Peñarol playing?

Peñarol have 12 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Progreso playing?

Progreso have 7 wins, 0 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Peñarol and Progreso last met?

It ended Progreso 0, Peñarol 2. In the last 1 meeting Peñarol won 1 and Progreso won 0.

What is the best bet for Peñarol vs Progreso?

Peñarol or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Peñarol against Progreso. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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