Predictions › Australia › Perth Glory vs Adelaide United

A-LeagueSun 1 Nov, 07:00 Australia time

Perth Glory vs Adelaide United prediction

HBF Park

Perth GloryHome

1.40 : 1.34

expected goals

Adelaide UnitedAway

38%Perth Glory

27%Draw

35%Adelaide Utd

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Perth Glory vs Adelaide United is Perth Glory to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Perth Glory to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Perth Glory 1.4, Adelaide United 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 7.791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Perth Glory 38%, the draw 27% and Adelaide United 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Perth Glory took 8 points from their last 5 games and Adelaide United took 8 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Perth Glory won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Adelaide United won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Perth Glory score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.6. Adelaide United score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Perth Glory games and 12 of Adelaide United games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Perth Glory won 0 and Adelaide United won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Adelaide United 4, Perth Glory 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Perth Gloryrecent form+3%
Adelaide Utdrecent form-1%
Adelaide Utdrest between games-3%

Perth Glory form D W D W DAdelaide Utd form D W L L DHome edge in this league 15% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Perth Glory vs Adelaide United: Perth Glory shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Perth Glory host Adelaide United in the A-League on Sun 1 Nov, 07:00 at HBF Park. Our prediction for Perth Glory vs Adelaide United is Perth Glory to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Perth Glory form

Perth Glory have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Adelaide United form

Adelaide United have 9 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Perth Glory won 0, Adelaide United won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Adelaide United 4, Perth Glory 0.

Our call

We expect Perth Glory to score about 1.4 goals and Adelaide United about 1.3. That points to Perth Glory to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.79.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Perth Glory	Adelaide Utd
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	9
Draws	6	8
Losses	9	3
Goals scored	26	35
Goals conceded	31	29
Scored per game	1.3	1.8
Conceded per game	1.6	1.4
Home record	4W 1D 4L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	1W 5D 5L	5W 5D 0L
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Both teams scored	65%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	77%	1.31
Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.94
Over 3.5 goals	29%	3.39
Both teams to score	56%	1.78
Perth Glory or Draw	65%	1.54
Adelaide United or Draw	62%	1.61
Perth Glory to win and Over 2.5	23%	4.30
Adelaide United to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.69
Perth Glory clean sheet	26%	3.81
Adelaide United clean sheet	25%	4.06

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.8%

2-18.5%

1-08.3%

1-28.1%

0-17.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Perth Glory vs Adelaide United?

Our prediction for Perth Glory vs Adelaide United is Perth Glory to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Perth Glory vs Adelaide United?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Perth Glory to score 1.4 goals and Adelaide United 1.3.

Will both teams score in Perth Glory vs Adelaide United?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Perth Glory last 20 games and 16 of Adelaide United last 20.

How are Perth Glory playing?

How are Adelaide United playing?

What happened when Perth Glory and Adelaide United last met?

It ended Adelaide United 4, Perth Glory 0. In the last 2 meetings Perth Glory won 0 and Adelaide United won 2.

What is the best bet for Perth Glory vs Adelaide United?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Perth Glory against Adelaide Utd. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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