EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › United States › Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning
NHLMon 5 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Benchmark International Arena

Philadelphia FlyersAway
2.9 : 3.3
projected goals
Tampa Bay LightningHome
46%Flyers
54%Lightning
Eagle safe pickUnder 8 goals
-398

Quick answer

Our prediction for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Philadelphia Flyers 2.9 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -398.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Projected total
6.2 goals
Best bet
Under 8 goals at -398

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 8 goals
80% chanceFair price -3982 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flyers to win
40% chanceFair price +1531 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tampa Bay Lightning 54% and Philadelphia Flyers 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 of their last 5 and Philadelphia Flyers won 1 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Lightning come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Philadelphia Flyers won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Tampa Bay Lightning score 2.4 goals a game and let in 2.8. Philadelphia Flyers score 2.5 and let in 2.6. Their recent games average 5.2 and 5.2 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Tampa Bay Lightning won 3 and Philadelphia Flyers won 0. The last one ended Philadelphia Flyers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 8 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lightningrest between games-5%
  • Flyersrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tampa Bay Lightning host Philadelphia Flyers in the NHL on Mon 5 Oct, 19:00 at Benchmark International Arena. Our prediction for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Philadelphia Flyers 2.9 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -398.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Philadelphia Flyers form

Philadelphia Flyers have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 51 goals scored and 52 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Tampa Bay Lightning won 3, Philadelphia Flyers won 0. Last time out it finished Philadelphia Flyers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5.

Our call

We expect Philadelphia Flyers to score about 2.9 goals and Tampa Bay Lightning about 3.3. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Under 8 goals at -398. Our bold bet is Flyers to win at +153.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LightningFlyers
Games played2020
Wins910
Losses1110
Goals scored4851
Goals conceded5552
Scored per game2.42.5
Conceded per game2.82.6
Home record5W 6L6W 4L
Away record4W 5L4W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Lightning spreadCoversFair
Lightning -1.532%+213
Lightning -0.548%+109
Lightning +0.564%-180
Total goalsOverUnder
5.561%39%
6.544%56%
7.528%72%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Lightning +3.5 wins if Lightning win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Our prediction for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Philadelphia Flyers 2.9 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -398.

What is the projected score for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

We project Philadelphia Flyers 2.9 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3, about 6.2 goals in total.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Philadelphia Flyers playing?

Philadelphia Flyers have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 51 goals scored and 52 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Tampa Bay Lightning and Philadelphia Flyers last met?

It ended Philadelphia Flyers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 5. In the last 3 meetings Tampa Bay Lightning won 3 and Philadelphia Flyers won 0.

What is the best bet for Philadelphia Flyers vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Under 8 goals at -398, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lightning against Flyers. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.