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Predictions › United States › Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers
MLBFri 25 Sept, 18:40 United States time

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers prediction

Comerica Park

Pittsburgh PiratesAway
3.8 : 4.1
projected runs
Detroit TigersHome
47%Pirates
53%Tigers
Eagle safe pickOver 5.5 runs
-257

Quick answer

Our prediction for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers is Detroit Tigers to win, with a 53% chance, but it is a close call. We project Pittsburgh Pirates 3.8 and Detroit Tigers 4.1. Our best bet is Over 5.5 runs at -257.

Prediction
Detroit Tigers to win
Chance
53%
Projected score
Pittsburgh Pirates 4, Detroit Tigers 4
Projected total
7.8 runs
Best bet
Over 5.5 runs at -257

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 5.5 runs
72% chanceFair price -2571 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Pirates to win
44% chanceFair price +1281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Detroit Tigers 53% and Pittsburgh Pirates 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Detroit Tigers won 5 of their last 5 and Pittsburgh Pirates won 3 of their last 5. Detroit Tigers come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Detroit Tigers won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Pittsburgh Pirates won 8 of their last 14 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Detroit Tigers score 4.3 runs a game and let in 4.3. Pittsburgh Pirates score 3.4 and let in 3.6. Their recent games average 8.6 and 7.0 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Detroit Tigers won 1 and Pittsburgh Pirates won 4. The last one ended Pittsburgh Pirates 4, Detroit Tigers 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 5.5 runs has a 72% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Tigersrest between games-5%
  • Piratesrest between games-2%
  • Tigersteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers: Detroit Tigers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Detroit Tigers host Pittsburgh Pirates in the MLB on Fri 25 Sept, 18:40 at Comerica Park. Our prediction for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers is Detroit Tigers to win, with a 53% chance, but it is a close call. We project Pittsburgh Pirates 3.8 and Detroit Tigers 4.1. Our best bet is Over 5.5 runs at -257.

Detroit Tigers form

Detroit Tigers have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 85 runs scored and 87 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Pittsburgh Pirates form

Pittsburgh Pirates have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 68 runs scored and 72 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins and 6 losses from 14. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Detroit Tigers won 1, Pittsburgh Pirates won 4. Last time out it finished Pittsburgh Pirates 4, Detroit Tigers 3.

Our call

We expect Pittsburgh Pirates to score about 3.8 runs and Detroit Tigers about 4.1. That points to Detroit Tigers to win. Our safest bet is Over 5.5 runs at -257. Our bold bet is Pirates to win at +128.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

TigersPirates
Games played2020
Wins1012
Losses108
Runs scored8568
Runs conceded8772
Scored per game4.33.4
Conceded per game4.33.6
Home record7W 5L4W 2L
Away record3W 5L8W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Tigers spreadCoversFair
Tigers -2.530%+228
Tigers -1.539%+155
Tigers -0.549%+106
Tigers +0.558%-138
Tigers +1.567%-204
Total runsOverUnder
5.570%30%
6.562%38%
7.553%47%
8.544%56%
9.535%65%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Tigers +3.5 wins if Tigers win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Justin Verlander Nears One Final Start For Detroit Tigers

Injured Tigers ace Justin Verlander is making progress and hopes to pitch one final time during a planned celebration of his career in Detroit.

13 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers?

Our prediction for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers is Detroit Tigers to win, with a 53% chance, but it is a close call. We project Pittsburgh Pirates 3.8 and Detroit Tigers 4.1. Our best bet is Over 5.5 runs at -257.

What is the projected score for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers?

We project Pittsburgh Pirates 3.8 and Detroit Tigers 4.1, about 7.8 runs in total.

How are Detroit Tigers playing?

Detroit Tigers have 10 wins and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 85 runs scored and 87 conceded. At home they have 7 wins and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Pittsburgh Pirates playing?

Pittsburgh Pirates have 12 wins and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 68 runs scored and 72 conceded. Away from home they have 8 wins and 6 losses from 14. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates last met?

It ended Pittsburgh Pirates 4, Detroit Tigers 3. In the last 5 meetings Detroit Tigers won 1 and Pittsburgh Pirates won 4.

What is the best bet for Pittsburgh Pirates vs Detroit Tigers?

Over 5.5 runs at -257, with a 72% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Tigers against Pirates. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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